As the Tour leaves the Alps, let's take a look at who's hot and who's not.
Michael Rasmussen is molten. The Chicken, as he is known, has almost a three-minute lead thanks mostly to some very aggressive riding on the stage to Tignes. It was so refreshing to see one of the favorites attack with three big climbs remaining. Such attacks can pay big, but if you blow up, your Tour can be over just like that. Rasmussen's days in yellow are well-deserved.
In the Armstrong/Ullrich years, the Chicken's time trialing skills would have spelled defeat as both Lance and Jan were incredibly strong against the watch and could literally destroy their competition. However, this year's field does not include an overall contender with a certified TT pedigree, so the Chicken is looking good in Vegas.
Alejandro Valverde is probably the biggest threat. In April, Ivan Basso told me that he was impressed with Valverde's improvement in his TT times, making him a bonafide contender. Don't count Levi out just yet. Save for Rasmussen, he is only one minute behind his rivals and if he can uncork some fast rides against the watch he could win. I am also pulling for
Cadel Evans. He attacking in the mountains says he is here to win. The Aussie is capable of riding a fast TT--witness his win in the 2006 Tour of Romandie.
One interesting aspect of this Tour is that there is so much parity that if one rider, like the Chicken, is able to put everything together and have the ride of his life, that might just be good enough to win in Paris. Personally, I just love seeing contenders like Rasmussen, Moreau and Evans attacking and doing so when failure could exact a huge price.
I would love to hear what everyone else is thinking!
Ever Upward,
Bruce
ps - it is great to see Rasmussen doing so well. Last year after the Tour
he crashed heavily and broke his hip so badly that his career was in doubt.
When I caught up with him at the Tour of California in February, he had really
just started training for real and was nursing a horrible head cold. Clearly,
he was not enjoying his time on the bike. My guess is that has all changed!
Active Expert: Bruce Hildenbrand
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Peter C. (pc)
Great report Bruce. It is great to see all the attacking and it'll be interesting to see if, as advertized, Levi is that much better on the steep hills coming up and can create some pressure of his own.
Side note, I was a little worried I just wouldn't care about the Tour this year with all the BS going on in cycling. Not the case, one view of those incredible landscapes and frightening climbs (and descents) and all other drama is forgotten.
Allons-y,
pc
dan
Thanks for the insight, Bruce!
I agree with pc right on down the line. I had similar concerns about how interested I would be in the Tour this year, with all the extraneous distractions and the absence of some of the great riders.
I have been glued to the tube, catching all the action on Versus. It is a gripping and exciting event, among the best in all of sport, and the lack of a totally dominant team or rider has only enhanced the suspense and drama.
I look forward to your next report.
-Dan
ATHENA
WELL, as long as you're askin!
I say Rasmussen's bike tech in his follow car for both TTs better be in SHAPE... That the only way he'll win the overall is if everyone else in the top 13 (after Stage 9) blow up or fall off the mountains. I truly admire Chicken's climbing ability & really, there is no one else who ROCKS the Poki-Dots like him, but he would have to get at LEAST 9 MORE minutes on his GC rivals during the 3 days of the Pyrenees. Just can't see it.
Before the Tour started this year, my podium picks were Vino (yeah, bold that pick...), Cadel & Levi. Then, Kloden & Valverde. I didn't think the last two were mentally strong enough to win it all. Kloden because why else would a guy who finished 2nd & 3rd previously, CHOOSE to ride support? Valverde because I thought when we get into the Pyrenees & if he's in contention, he'd crumble. Unable to take the 'homecourt' pressure. Same for Mayo.
Now that we're almost half-way, here's my current views. Vino is out of it, don't see even a podium spot even if he attempts a crazy, impossible comeback. After last year, why would the peloton be dumb enough to let ANY GC threat, even if 15 minutes down & injured, go up the road by himself? Plus, I think he is just too hurt. Why else would the team have allowed Kloden to go off today? Cadel is making me look good. Go Aussie, oy.oy.oy! Levi is still looking good, but he's been banking on the Pyrenees to make his move & I'm crossing my fingers that this will come to pass. If he puts his "Lance face on" that he had for the ToC, then yes, watch out for Levi! I still don't think Kloden WANTS to win, but he could be on the podium, if that injury is not too severe. If Valverde was stronger mentally, I'd say right now he was going to win it, but I still think he'll succumb to pressure.
So, my current podium picks are : Cadel, Levi, Valverde. Kloden 4th & I would pick ahead of Valverde if I knew the true extent of his injury. Rasmussen 5th.
I think the winner is definitely currently sitting between 2-9th place. Although one of the podium places COULD be snatched by someone currently further down who does something incredible in the Pyrenees.
No matter what, it's gonna be AWESOME to watch!
Ward
I think Rasmussen's time trialing abilities aren't as bad as everyone says. He won't ever have a TT like he did two years ago, crashing 5 times. He'll certainly lose time to most of the GC contenders, but he won't blow up like that ever again. I think he's going to minimize his losses next Saturday and surprise everyone, and I think he'll ride well in the Pyrenees and the others won't.
Cadel doesn't have the team to keep him fresh. Vino is going to work for Kloden. Levi won't finish on the podium because he won't attack. Valverde is all over the podium. Sastre will do well in Pyrenees.
I say Rasmussen wins, Valverde second, and Sastre third.
Theresa
I really wanted Vino to win. Now that that looks impossible, and Rassmussen is in the yellow jersey, I'm warming up to him a lot! How about a pure climber winning?? I don;t think he'll repeat his horrible TT; because I sure he's worked on it enough not to get psyched out. But he admits that he's not a TT'er. He knows he has to lead in the mountains, and get all the time he can. And his attitude is awesome! I'd love for Cadel Evans and Carlos or Frank to be on the podium. Rather I get what I want or not, we'll see.
Bruce,
Good report. I'd like to nominate Moreau for the overall. He is climbing well and can TT as good or better than those around him. His team is weak but he could overcome the Chicken in the TT's.
Also, don't count out Kloeden yet. Now that Vino has succumbed, look for Kloeden to have the team support to delever him fresh for the TT's.
best,
Watcher