In just two days we should have a good idea of who are the contenders and who are the pretenders in this year's Tour as the Alps loom larger and larger.
The stage over the Columbier finishing in Le Gran Bornand may still contain a few pretenders, but as Levi Leipheimer pointed out in the Discovery Channel pre-Tour press conference, the climb to the ski station at Tignes is a long one and there will be no hiding.
Who will have it in the big mountains? Good question and one that even the favorites can't answer for themselves. With all the pre-Tour hoopla the week before the start, and the fact that, traditionally, the first week of the race is devoid of any "real" climbs, it will have been almost two weeks since any of the contenders have ridden up a climb when they finally hit the mountains. Just imagine training for your big hilly ride and not doing any big climbs for two weeks before the event. Hard to imagine, huh?
So, when the Tour hits the first big climb, most of the favorites take it easy and try to figure out if their form is still there or if it has taken the last train for the coast. Bernard Hinault, five-time winner of the Tour in the late '70s and early '80syou know, the guy who is there every day on the podium greeting the winner of the stagehad a strategy that obviously worked for him.
While all his competitors were tentatively pedaling up the first climb, the Badger, as Hinault was called, would go to the front and pound up the mountain in a huge gear. His opposition could never tell if he was bluffing or he was about to crush everyone. Of course, bluffing away your weaknesses is key to wining a three-week race, but on a 6,000-plus-foot climb like the Col du Galibier, which comes next Tuesday, you better be in the World Series of Poker-class or you will be left behind.