If Lance doesn't win his eighth Tour de France this July, the cycling pundits will certainly be dissecting his race and his pre-race preparations ad infinitum. But, regardless of what happens over the next three weeks it is interesting to note that Lance had clearly deviated from the formula which brought him seven consecutive Tour victories.

During his record setting string of wins, one of the critical components of his preparation was to ride, sometimes two or three times, the key stages of that year's race. That usually meant long days in the mountains and previewing all the time trials. Obviously, the strategy and tactics of a given stage dictated how a stage played out on race day, but for Lance and his teammates, there were no surprises when it came to what a particular course might dish out.

This year, mostly due to his broken collarbone, his committment to ride the Giro and the birth of his son, Max, Lance has not had the opportunity to preview all the key stages. Lance did ride the opening time trial course in Monaco several times in the days preceding the race. He reckoned, correctly, that the tricky descents were just as important as having maximum power on the climb to the summit of the Col du Beausoleil.

But, instead of being in Europe in June doing recon rides, Lance and his Astana teammates Levi Leipheimer and Chris Horner trained out of Aspen, Colorado.The three amigos rode four and a half to six and a half hours a day in training. One of their most popular rides was to go from Aspen up over Independence Pass at 12,000' then down to Twin Lakes at 9000' then back up and over Independence Pass to Aspen.  This 80-mile ride with about 8000' of climbing took the boys about 4 and a half hours at moderate training pace.

At the recent Nevada City Classic, both Levi and Lance remarked that it was good to come down from altitude to race as training at such a high height really does not give a good indication of overall fitness. However, it has been proven that altitude training does work so these guys were not wasting their time. They just weren't in Europe as was the case from 1999-2005.

We will have to wait and see if the deviation from the formula was a good idea or not. Sometimes circumstances force you to change your game plan. The jury might still be out, but judging from how Lance and Levi rode in the Monaco TT, things are looking good.

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Race Notes

Some guy named Mark won stage two from an intact peloton. It was great to see Tyler Farrar in second and the fact that Hushovd slipped in there for fourth meant that nobody is giving away any victories just yet. Yes, Cavendish may seem unbeatable, but Farrar did just that this past March in the Tour of Mediterranean. Don't count Garmin-Slipstream out. They can definitely give Cavendish a run for his money and if the Manxman gets a bit cocky and leaves it late, like he did at the Giro when he lost a couple of stages to Allesandro Petacchi, Farrar could pounce.

Bruce

Mark Cavendish won his third stage of the Giro today in Florence (Firenze if you are Italian). Last year he won two stages in Italy so this has to be viewed as at least a 50% improvement for the just-turned 24-year-old pro on Columbia Highroad. Mark and his fiance live about 20 miles away from Florence so this was a homecoming of sorts. It is doubly nice to win in front of friends and loved ones.

The big news after the stage was that Cavendish will be departing the race and will not start Saturday's stage. While you might think that the Manx man should sack up and finish the race, this is pretty common these days among the top riders. You might remember that Cavendish won four stages of the Tour de France in 2008, before exiting that race in the final week to rest up and prepare for the Beijing Olympics.

In 2008, he finished the Giro mainly because there were a few flat stages in the final week where he had the chance to win. In the 2009 edition, the final week features uphill finishes and time trials and offers little opportunities for the sprinters. At only 24-years-old Cavendish has many more grand tours in his legs and will be exiting stage left so he can drive the 30 minutes home to rest.

Cavendish has a new book hitting the shelves, 'Boy Racer', co-written with Procycling magazine's Features Editor Daniel Friebe. It should be a good read.

One of the rumours surrounding Cavendish is that when his contract is up at the end of the 2009 season, he will switch teams to ride for the new British professional cycling squad Team Sky. If I was the director of Team Sky and I wanted to get one British rider who would bring instant success to my team, that rider would be Mark Cavendish. It might cost you 25% (or more) of your total team budget, but the guy can win races and big races at that. Just make sure to hire a couple of his leadout men as well.

It would be sad to see Cavendish leave Columbia Highroad. Three years ago, Team Owner Bob Stapleton took a chance on the just-then-20-year-old rider and as Mark has blossomed, Stapleton has done what it takes to build a team around the sprinter. There is a lot of great chemistry on Columbia Highroad. I am hoping that Stapleton finds a way to keep Mark on the team.

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There is another big race going on besides the Giro.  Over in Spain the Tour of Catalonia is hotting up and Garmin-Slipstream rider Dan Martin is showing some incredible form. Last year, he won the Route Du Sud just before the Tour in the same region. On the hardest stage of Catalonia, he finished second, beating Alejandro Valverde and moving up to second place overall. Nice riding!

Bruce

Today was the first road stage of the Giro and true to form, a crash on the finishing circuits has already had an affect on the overall standings. The Giro is not the Tour de France and there are many reasons why one of them being the in-town finishing circuits. The Tour has never been fond of them, but the Giro seems to sprout them and on the worst roads in the smallest of towns.

I guess I should explain what finishing circuits are in case you might be wondering. In the Tour de France, stages start in town A and finish in town B. While the route might be circuitous getting from A to B, when the peloton gets to town B the race heads for the finish line and we have a winner. For some reason, the Giro has used a slightly different formula for stage finishes. Often when the race reaches town B, the peloton then embarks on, usually, three to five laps of a small (3-10km) finishing circuit.

You might be thinking what's the big deal; a kilometer is a kilometer. But, you have to remember that a lot of towns in Italy are pretty darn old and most were built before anything but horses were means of transportation. That means two things. First off, the roads can be pretty narrow and can also vary in width from block to block. Secondly, those same roads might not be paved with smooth asphalt. If you add in the fact that every Italian rider in the peloton that makes it to the finishing circuits will do anything short of murder to win a stage of the Giro you have a recipe for major disaster.

On these finishing circuits crashes are not the exception. They are the rule. Because of this it is crucial that any rider who wants to contend for the overall title has to be at the very front of the peloton. Getting caught behind a crash is almost as bad as being involved in the crash. Neither option is good. What this means is that guy riding next to Mark Cavendish might just be Levi Leipheimer or Ivan Basso. Well, that would be the case except that on Sunday's stage both Leipheimer and Basso were caught at the back of the group on the finishing circuits and lost 13 seconds.

One rider who was noticeably at the front of the peloton on the finishing circuits was Lance Armstrong. That wasn't by chance. You don't win seven grand tours by winging it and just letting stuff happen. Note to both Levi and Ivan. Keep a close eye on the guy in the black and gold helmet. He's up at the front where all the GC contenders should be.

Bruce

The biggest one-day race in Italy, Milan-San Remo, will take place on Saturday and a stellar field is expected to make the event unforgettable. Not only is Lance Armstrong going to ride the 190-miles from Italy's second largest city to the Italian Riviera, Mark Cavendish and Tom Boonen look to continue their sprinting duel on San Remo's Via Roma.

Of course, everyone was expecting a sprint finish last year when Swiss ace Fabian Cancellara gave everyone the slip after the descent of the Poggio, the race's final climb. It was the stuff of legends, unfortunately Spartacus is still recovering from a training crash and will not defend his win.

The big question is whether uber-sprinter Mark Cavendish of Columbia-High Road will get himself over the four major climbs which define the race.  The biggest, the Turchino Pass, comes at mid-distance which will allow the Manx-man to get back on.  It is more a question of the Cipressa (pronounced Chipressa), the penultimate ascent, and the Poggio (pronounced POcho) which comes within five miles of the finish line.

It is going to take a lot of teamwork for Cavendish to make it over the "capos" or "climbs", look for his faithful ally, Michael Barry, to be handling the babysitting duties up and over the Poggio with George Hincapie and Mark Renshaw as the key players in the Columbia-High Road leadout train.

On the other hand, Tom Boonen has proven that he can get to the Via Roma with the bunch, but he has been outfoxed in the finale and is definitely looking to the 2009 edition of MSR to set matters right.

Look for Lance Armstrong to use this race to gain some more "conditioning" working on being comfortable in a big pack at high speeds for seven hours plus. It would be a fairytale ending if Big Tex could pull off the win, but even Lance will tell you that unless the perfect opportunity arises, he is still in the training phase of his comeback. That's just the reality of the situation.

Unfortunately for us US cycling fans, the Versus TV network will not be carrying the race.  It was great last year to see Garmin-Slipstream's Will Frischkorn off the front for almost the entire race in a three-rider break not to mention Cancellara's surprising upset win.  Check for streaming video options on the internet.  You won't be disappointed.

Bruce

I hope I am not jinxing the race by welcoming the sun back to the great(well, kind of great, these days) state of California especially when I tell you that temperatures in the 70's might greet the riders in Solvang for the decisive time trial(TT). Just to be sure there was lots of snow lining the roads today in the foothills of the Sierra Nevada mountains, but the roads were dry and the temps were moderate.

All this adds up to a bluebird day for the AToC and the racers did not disappoint.  Current US Pro Road champion, Tyler Hamilton(Rock Racing), Jason McCartney(SaxoBank) and Serge Pauwels(Cervelo Test Team) formed the break of the day and almost held it into Clovis. But, the sprinters and their teams timed the chase to perfection setting up for only the second bunch finish of the race.  Unlike yesterday when the smart money was on sprint phenom Mark Cavendish (Columbia-High Road) and Thor Hushovd(Cervelo Test Team) stole the show, the Cav won by about two inches over another sprinter extraordinaire, Tom Boonen(Quick Step). The margin would most likely have been bigger if Cav hadn't started celebrating before he crossed the line, but that doesn't really matter.  A win is a win.

So why did Cavendish seal the deal today, but come up empty-handed yesterday? The answer is in two parts.  First off, the sprinter has to feel good enough to want to contest the sprint. In my interview with Tom Boonen yesterday, Tom was pretty adamant that he wasn't going to be going for it on wet roads and risk a crash that might end to his 2009 spring Classics season. That ruled out Tom yesterday, but Cavendish doesn't ride the spring classics to win.  He is more a a pure sprinter and while he might try for a win in the flatter races such as Milan-San Remo, he won't be targeting monuments to cycling such as Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix. So, that means that Cavendish will be going for sprint wins, even on wetter stages, as long as he feels good.

The second major part is the team's leadout train. These days, to win a big bunch sprint in a big race you either need to be significantly faster than everyone else or have a good group of guys who can set you up for the sprint.  A leadout train basically revs up the pace to keep the speed high enough to prevent anyone from breaking away. Then, each rider pulls off at a pre-determined point orchestrated in such a way that their top sprinter hits the front with 150-200 meters to the finish line. The sprinter sits in the draft of his teammates until the very last minute then boom, off go the champagne corks.

Yesterday, in the sprint in Modesto, it appeared that Mark Cavendish was willing to give it a go, but in the final mile of the race, his leadout train got severely derailed.  The final three riders in the train were George Hincapie, Mark Renshaw and Mark Cavendish ordered that way because Renshaw is faster than Hincapie and Cavendish is faster than Renshaw. The problem was that Renshaw couldn't hold Hincapie's wheel. It was probably not due to speed, more than likely there was too much 'barging'(pushing and shoving) and Renshaw just got pushed off of George's wheel.

Today, in Clovis, the sun clearly improved the spirits of all the riders, including the sprinters so Cav and Boonen were ready to contest the finish. And, unlike yesterday, the Columbia-High Road leadout train did not get derailed. On the flip side, Boonen's Quick-Step leadout train look disorganized.  Advantage Cavendish.

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Race Notes

Jason McCartney spent a long time off the front in both Stage 2 and today's stage, but has yet to grab the brass ring.  I talked with him briefly after his long escape on the way to Santa Cruz. He was initially dropped by Quick Step's Carlos Barredo on the final climb, but he clawed his way back into the lead halfway up the climb.  I asked him if he had a stage win in his sights, "Yeah, for certain, but I just kind of locked up at the end.  It was cold out there and I just needed a little more freshness."  Here is a photo of a very tired and cold McCartney embracing his family at the finish line.

I thought I would throw in this photo from yesterday of the riders heading out on the course from San Jose. Hopefully, this will be one of my last rain photos.

Tyler Hamilton won Amgen's Breakaway from Cancer Most Courageous Rider Jersey for his efforts in the breakaway today.

Not So Race Notes

Tomorrow, the race route will take the racers right past the location where legendary actor James Dean died in a tragic car accident in 1955.  At about mile 98 they will pass the intersection of State Highway 46 and State Highway 41 where the accident occurred. Coincidentally, Dean was headed to Paso Robles, the site of the stage finish when he died. There is a memorial to Dean at the small diner at the intersection.

Bruce

Here's my bike-related Christmas wish list:

-the climbing ability of Alberto Contador.  I agree with Johan Bruyneel that Lance can hang with the best in the mountains, but Alberto is the man.

-the timetrialing ability of either Lance Armstrong or Fabian Cancellara. Hey, I am not picky, either one will do though if there is significant uphill, I would prefer Lance

-the sprinting ability of Mark Cavendish. Along with his fast legs, I probably also need his nerves of steel.

-the descending ability of Paolo "the Falcon" Savoldelli.  This guy literally flew down hills and mountains like he was on wings.

-the heart of Jens Voigt. This guy can go fast on the flats, the mountains, in time trials, etc, and doesn't seem to be built to go fast in any specific discipline.

-the tactical prowess of Johan Bruyneel. Nobody can read a race better than Johan.

-the overall demeanor of Christian Vande Velde. This guy was in the thick of things all the way to Paris, but seemed to be having too much fun.

-the pocketbook of the New York Yankees, because if I get all my wishes, they will be the only professional team who can afford me.

What's on your wish list?

Happy Holidays,

Bruce

Ugly, rainy weather greeted the Tour for its first day in the Alps, where the overall champion will most likely be decided after three hard days of racing culminating with the legendary ascent of the 21 hairpins of l'Alpe d'Huez. The riders were understandably apprehensive given the pouring rain and thunderclaps. Team Garmin-Chipotle director Jonathan Vaughters agreed that this was a day that it was better to have been a pro than be a pro.

In between raindrops I wandered around the start village and team buses before the start of the stage from Embrun to Prato Nevoso talking to the team personnel and riders, trying to discover what lay ahead for the racers.

Jonathan Vaughters had a simple explanation of how the Alps would play out. "Everyone is so interested in the tactics on mountain stages. There are no tactics on mountain stages. On mountain stages your legs go or they don't. Tactics are for a week ago. Now we are into either you have horsepower or you don't." Regarding the final climb to Prato Nevoso, he commented, "It is not as selective as Huatacam; not as selective as Alpe d'Huez so I don't know. I think there will be a small group come to the line with the favorites in it."

Of course, everyone wanted to know how his star rider, Christian Vandevelde, is doing "Good. Yesterday he said that with 400 meters to go he was 'I almost attacked. I should have done it and tried to win the stage.. Anytime you have a guy like Christian who is not normally very explosive at all for a sprint finish thinking about sprinting just because why not, he's there, that means he's feeling good."

Power guru Dr. Allen Lim gave the scientific angle to the alpine stages. "They have only done about 30% of the real climbing kilometers. There is 70% of critical climbing kilometers still left in the race so it is hard to say how his numbers are looking. He has been riding with the GC contenders and that is great, about 5.5 to 5.9 watts/kg on climbs longer than 10 minutes. That's right where he needs to be if he can sustain that I think he has a good chance."

Remarking about the position the Garmin-Chipotle finds itself in with Vandevelde in a podium position, "Oh yeah, we are all nervous. But that's OK. He's(Vandevelde) got a handle on it."

The big news of the day was the abandon of Mark Cavendish. Team Columbia PR director Kristy Scrymgeour noted that Mark had already ridden and finished one grand tour this year, the Giro d'Italia, and at 23 he is still very young. Team management was responsible for making the decision who then convinced Mark that it was the right thing to do. There was a huge media scrum on the Team Columbia bus as Cavendish fielded questions, for the last time before heading to the Olympics where he is the odds on favorite to win the gold medal on the track in the Madison event where he will be partnered with his Team Columbia mate Bradley Wiggins.

After the scrum, I chatted briefly with Mark about his incredible performance at this year's Tour. "I rode my first Tour last year. I didn't get any results last year, but I was able to come back and know exactly how the Tour worked. I was able to use that to my advantage and with a strong team it worked out perfectly."

Mark's four stage wins were very convincing, sometimes winning by five or more bike lengths. I asked him if the ease of his wins was a surprise. "No I wasn't surprised by it. I have been doing it all year, more like the past 18 months, by that much. I am 2-3kph faster than anyone else. It is just a matter of getting there, getting your tactical things right and getting a strong team behind you to put you in that position and that is what happened."

On the Pyreneean stage to Huatacam, Fabian 'Spartacus' Cancellara of Team CSC Saxo Bank hauled himself over the Tourmalet in the lead group. It was an amazing performance by a rider who is gravitationally-challenged in the big mountains. "I had a good day and I followed the tactics of the team and everything was fine. We see today but, maybe it won't be the same as the Tourmalet," explains the Swiss rider. 

Cancellara was not impressed by the inclement weather. "Yesterday we had a lot of sun and today, ugh(pointing to the rain pouring down) we have to see if we have snow. Bad weather in the beginning; hopefully we will have good weather for the end."

The two time World Time Trial Champion outlined the race strategy for Team CSC Saxo Bank. "It depends on how the race develops. Maybe if some breakaways go, but otherwise we will stay quiet then see for Frank and Carlos on the last climb."

Fabian's teammate Jens Voigt echoed the strategy for the day's stage, "Maybe on the last climb we are going to try to do something. Of course we are going to try to get this one second back. On the last climb we will take our responsibility for this race and try to make it up."

Bruce

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race notes

What an exciting finale on both ends of the race. First, there was Danny Pate atempting to win Garmin-Chipotle's first stage of the Tour. Then there was the battle royale amongst all the favorites. I just love it when a rider gets dropped then claws his way back into contention. Andy Schleck seemed to have nine lives on the slopes of Prato Nevoso and was a big part of his brother, Frank, taking yellow.

Chapeau to Rabobank's Denis Menchov for getting right back up from a very unfortunate crash on greasy pavement right as he was launching a very promising attack. That's bike racing, but aggressive efforts should bring positive not negative rewards.

If you are wondering who the Gerlosteiner rider Bernard Kohl is, rewind back to the inaugural Tour of California in 2006 when he was riding for T-Mobile and ascended the fearsome Sierra Road climb in the lead group with eventual overall winner Levi Leipheimer.

In his post race interview Frank Schleck said the yellow jersey was the result of the work of a great team and his brother and Carlos Sastre on the final climb. After watching Team CSC Saxo Bank drill it on the flats to the base of Prato Nevoso it is hard to disagree. When asked who is the team leader, Frank replied that the team still has two leaders himself and Carlos Sastre.

Caisse d'Epargne rider Oscar Perriero suffered a horrific crash on the descent of the Col de Agnello.  He literally fell over the guard rail on one switchback and ended up on the road in the next switchback after a total fall of almost 20 feet.

There is so much going on at the 2008 Tour de France, I just don't know where to begin. One huge development is the positive test by Riccardo Ricco for EPO.  Actually, he tested positive for a very new version of EPO which has only been commercially available since the beginning of the year. This new version of EPO known as CERA or Micera is so new that there is no accepted test for the drug.  Remember that this Tour, unlike years past, is not run under the sanction of the UCI.  The French Cycling Federation is the sanctioning body and it was their lab who returned the positive test.

Adding to the mystery is the fact that Ricco has a medically-documented high hematocrit level so unless he was over that limit, it is not clear, in the absence of a valid test that he could be found positive. Regardless, the entire Scott-Saunier Duval team has withdrawn from the Tour, shades of 2007 which saw the exits of both Astana and Cofidis when their riders tested positive.  However, this time, the decision to remove the team came from Scott-Saunier Duval management and not from the Tour organizers.

This is a very sticky mess that has left a lot of those in the sport shaking their heads. Ricco has been on the watch list since the start of the Tour.  When he shot out of the lead group on the Col du Aspin, I joked to one of my colleagues in the press room that it was not a very wise move and now Ricco would clearly be in the spotlight for a doping offense.

On a completely different matter, but slightly related, on the rest day in Pau, 17 of the 18 Pro Tour teams (Astana was not invited to the Tour) announced that they would not be renewing their UCI ProTour license in 2009 effectively killing the ProTour.  I don't know too many people who are losing sleep over the demise of the ProTour.  While the UCI has stated various reasons for its inception, it appears that the only real reason for starting it was for the UCI to be able to get its hands on the Tour De France's TV money.  The UCI should get back to its original charter of sanctioning races and teams.  That's what they seem to do best.

How do you all feel about Ricco's positive and/or the demise of the ProTour?

Bruce

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Race Notes

When you are on a roll you are on a roll.  Team Columbia looked to have the leadout train dialed to perfection as they gave Mark Cavendish an armchair ride to the finish for win number three.  In his post race interview on France 2 TV with Gerard Hotlz he remarked about the victory.  "Three wins in very different conditions.  It just shows how strong the team is. Even if we don't win another stage we can be very content."  Commenting on the exclusion of Riccardo Ricco he remarked, "It is bad for the organization, but it is good for me that the tests do work."

Cadel Evans retains the yellow jersey. He rode very smartly today always being in the front of the peloton in order to avoid any crashes.  He commented to Holtz,"it is hard to stay in the first 20, but on days like this it is critical."  Looking forward to the difficulties to come, he told Holtz, "Jausier and l'Alpe d' Heuz will be difficult as will the time trial.  Last year the final time trial played out like a Hollywood script."  And lastly, we learn of the philanthropy of the Australian, "all of my jerseys from the Tour are donated to charities or to people who have helped me in my career."  Pretty cool.

OK. On a day when the Tour seems to only be about bad things, I thought this photo would lighten things up a bit.  Everyday as the riders come across the finish line and head to the team buses the fans are there to cheer support. In this photo, a rider from the Basque team Euskaltel-Euskadi team gives his bottle to one of his Basque fans who will not soon forget this day.