In the blog at the end of last week, I told Jesse that after the weekend of racing I could give him (and all readers) a better idea of what it will take for the USA to get back the third Olympic slot for the men.

The European Continental Championships race last weekend was a good one for Olivier Marceau of Switzerland. His third place finish, earning him a tidy 356 points in the race, pushed him from a ranking number of 40 to 33. This bumped Switzerland past Russia and Australia for country rankings and the countries that will get three slots on the start line for the men.

Interestingly, Dmitri Polyansky did not end up racing, so this helped the USA keep the points spread lower. We can make any number of speculations as to why he didn't race; but, he has been racing a lot, so perhaps he needed a break.

Here are the current Olympic Rankings:

Olivier Marceau (SUI - three country slots): 2808

Brendan Sexton (AUS - three country slots): 2507

Dmitri Polyansky (RUS - three country slots): 2500

Hunter Kemper (USA- two country slots): 2359

Matt Reed (USA): 2305

In order for Hunter Kemper or Matt Reed to get the USA that third country slot, they need to score more points in Madrid than Polyansky or Sexton. First, let's look at Polyansky because he's the closest in rank.

There are 141 points that separate Kemper from Polyansky and 195 points separate Reed from Polyansky. Polyansky has nine races this year in his rankings, with the lowest at a value of 126. He would have to score a place at Madrid, better than 21 in order for his lowest race to drop out and add points to his ranking. If he places 21 or more (22, 23, 23...), then Kemper would need to place 19 or better (18, 17, 16...) to pass Polyanksy in the rankings. Reed would need to place 15 or better to pass Polyansky, if Polyansky places 21 or more.

The 21 place comes from my assumption that Madrid will have a quality of field (QoF) of 20 percent. This comes from looking at the BG Triathlon World Cup Rankings list and comparing it to the Madrid entry list. Fifteen of the top World Cup racers will be in Madrid, giving the race the highest quality of field possible for the Olympic Rankings, which are the rankings that count toward the 2008 Olympic Qualification.

Assuming the highest QoF at 20 percent, here are the points that will be awarded at Madrid:

Place	World Cup
	Quality of Field 10 - 20%
1	600
2	555
3	513
4	475
5	439
6	406
7	376
8	348
9	322
10	297
11	275
12	255
13	235
14	218
15	201
16	186
17	172
18	159
19	147
20	136
21	126
22	117
23	108
24	100
25	92
26	85
27	79
28	73
29	68
30	63
31	58
32	54
33	50
34	46
35	42
36	39
37	36
38	34
39	31
40	29
41	27
42	25
43	23
44	21
45	19
46	18
47	17
48	15
49	14
50	13

The good news for both Kemper and Reed is that they are not working from a maximum of nine races, so any points they score In Madrid on May 25, will count toward their Olympic Rank. They still, however, need to put a points gap on Polyansky or Sexton to get that third country slot.

Sexton is only seven points away from Polyansky, so on the surface it seems that Kemper and/or Reed could jump past both Polyansky and Sexton with good races. Unfortunately for the USA, Sexton is in the same situation as Kemper and Reed in that he is not working with a maximum of nine races this season so all points he scores in Madrid will count toward his total.

I laid out the simplest scenario above. Of course the math gets more complicated if Polyansky places better than 21 (20, 19, 18...) at Madrid. One simplified way to look at it is Kemper needs to beat Polyansky by at least two places and Reed needs to beat Polyansky by at least six places. That last sentence isn't exactly true since the points spread is more as they place better in the event, but it gets us close.

As I mentioned in a previous post, if I were a betting gal, I'd bet the USA will get that third country slot back at Madrid. Perhaps wishful thinking, but we'll see.

I've also mentioned that Madrid is not the final determining race for those country slots. Vancouver World Championships on Sunday June, 8 will be the final race that determines country slots.

We have two very important races to watch in the next few weeks.

Jesse at Active commented on the last column:

Well, you were right, Gale. Polyansky placed 7th. So right now, the US only has two slots (Though Matt Reed had a great race, sprinting down to the wire to take second. Good sign for +Beijing++, right?).+

So how can the Americans win back our third spot?

Great question Jesse.

There are just a few important races left to score the all-important points that determine which countries get three, two, one or no athletes on the start line for the Olympic Games.

The first important race occurs this weekend and is the 2008 Lisbon ETU Triathlon European Championships. This race is considered a Continental Championship race, earning more points than a World Cup event, less than a World Championship event. For the points breakdown, look here.

There will be no USA athletes at this race, because it is a Continental Championship event. The Continental Championship event for the USA was the 2008 Mazatlan PATCO Triathlon Pan American Championship event, held the same weekend as the Tuscaloosa trials race. Our top-ranked athletes (sans Shoemaker, who already has his Olympic slot) were all at the Tuscaloosa trials race. While the trials race was exciting, there were no ITU points awarded for this event. Points are critical, especially now, as you know.

Jesse, you noticed that Polyansky popped past the USA and we lost our third men's slot. Not only did he step past the USA, he also stepped past Switerland's Olivier Marceau. Now Switzerland becomes the country we need to beat out to be the last country to secure three slots.

Unfortunately for the USA, Switzerland and Russia will have the opportunity to score points this weekend, while the USA (Hunter Kemper, Matt Reed) and Australia (Brendan Sexton) will not.

Here are the current standings for the race for the third men's slots, which changed from last week:

Brendan Sexton (AUS - three country slots): 2507

Dmitri Polyansky (RUS - three country slots): 2500

Olivier Marceau (SUI - three country slots): 2452

Hunter Kemper (USA- two country slots): 2359

Matt Reed (USA): 2305

More than likely, Polyansky and Marceau will both pass Sexton this weekend for accumulated points at this weekend's race.

Polyansky is working from a base of thirteen races, only nine of which count in the total, so his lowest scoring race will be dropped. Marceau is working from a base of only five races, so any points he accumulates will count in his total.

The next race that counts is Madrid. All of the men discussed above are on the start list for that race. As discussed previously, watch for all of the countries discussed above to be positioning their bubble-points person (or people) for a maximum points score. For us, Friman (World Rank = 72), Fretta (WR = 114) and Seymour (WR = 181) should all be working for Kemper and Reed to help them get that third country slot.

Recall, athletes must be ranked in the top 125 in the ranking to be eligible for the Games.

The final race that counts is the World Championships in Vancouver on June 8th. All of the contenders will be there as well.

After the European Championships, I can give you a better guess at what needs to happen for the USA to get that third slot back.

If we do not get the third men's slot back by the end of the World Championships race (the cut off for Olympic ranking points), Big Matty Reed loses his Olympic slot. The final slot will be determined at the Des Moines race. Carefully read the USAT's Amended Selection Criteria at this link to see the selection process in print.

You can watch the European Champs as well as the Madrid race live on the ITU website, Tricast Live.