Active Expert: Gale Bernhardt

So how can the Americans win back our third spot?

Gale Bernhardt — Thu, 08 May 2008 23:08:56 GMT

Jesse at Active commented on the last column:

Well, you were right, Gale. Polyansky placed 7th. So right now, the US only has two slots (Though Matt Reed had a great race, sprinting down to the wire to take second. Good sign for +Beijing++, right?).+

So how can the Americans win back our third spot?

Great question Jesse.

There are just a few important races left to score the all-important points that determine which countries get three, two, one or no athletes on the start line for the Olympic Games.

The first important race occurs this weekend and is the 2008 Lisbon ETU Triathlon European Championships. This race is considered a Continental Championship race, earning more points than a World Cup event, less than a World Championship event. For the points breakdown, look here.

There will be no USA athletes at this race, because it is a Continental Championship event. The Continental Championship event for the USA was the 2008 Mazatlan PATCO Triathlon Pan American Championship event, held the same weekend as the Tuscaloosa trials race. Our top-ranked athletes (sans Shoemaker, who already has his Olympic slot) were all at the Tuscaloosa trials race. While the trials race was exciting, there were no ITU points awarded for this event. Points are critical, especially now, as you know.

Jesse, you noticed that Polyansky popped past the USA and we lost our third men's slot. Not only did he step past the USA, he also stepped past Switerland's Olivier Marceau. Now Switzerland becomes the country we need to beat out to be the last country to secure three slots.

Unfortunately for the USA, Switzerland and Russia will have the opportunity to score points this weekend, while the USA (Hunter Kemper, Matt Reed) and Australia (Brendan Sexton) will not.

Here are the current standings for the race for the third men's slots, which changed from last week:

Brendan Sexton (AUS - three country slots): 2507

Dmitri Polyansky (RUS - three country slots): 2500

Olivier Marceau (SUI - three country slots): 2452

Hunter Kemper (USA- two country slots): 2359

Matt Reed (USA): 2305

More than likely, Polyansky and Marceau will both pass Sexton this weekend for accumulated points at this weekend's race.

Polyansky is working from a base of thirteen races, only nine of which count in the total, so his lowest scoring race will be dropped. Marceau is working from a base of only five races, so any points he accumulates will count in his total.

The next race that counts is Madrid. All of the men discussed above are on the start list for that race. As discussed previously, watch for all of the countries discussed above to be positioning their bubble-points person (or people) for a maximum points score. For us, Friman (World Rank = 72), Fretta (WR = 114) and Seymour (WR = 181) should all be working for Kemper and Reed to help them get that third country slot.

Recall, athletes must be ranked in the top 125 in the ranking to be eligible for the Games.

The final race that counts is the World Championships in Vancouver on June 8th. All of the contenders will be there as well.

After the European Championships, I can give you a better guess at what needs to happen for the USA to get that third slot back.

If we do not get the third men's slot back by the end of the World Championships race (the cut off for Olympic ranking points), Big Matty Reed loses his Olympic slot. The final slot will be determined at the Des Moines race. Carefully read the USAT's Amended Selection Criteria at this link to see the selection process in print.

You can watch the European Champs as well as the Madrid race live on the ITU website, Tricast Live.

Olympic slot lost if Polyansky places 14th or higher

Gale Bernhardt — Thu, 01 May 2008 16:42:49 GMT

The math is done and if Dmitri Polyansky from Russia places 14th or higher in Richard's Bay World Cup this weekend, the USA loses that third men's Olympic triathlon start line slot.

ITU released the answer to my math question in this press release.

See yesterday's blog for more details.

What are the odds the USA will lose a mens' starting position?

Gale Bernhardt — Wed, 30 Apr 2008 18:37:36 GMT

I received an email asking me what I thought the odds are that the USA men will lose a starting line position for triathlon at the Olympics.

Great question.

In yesterday's blog I outlined the current issue. Let me give you more information today.

I think there is a high likelihood that the USA will indeed lose that third men's slot this weekend. The big question is by how much.

I don't know what the Russian Olympic qualifying process entails, so there might be some intersquad rivalries that I'm unaware of, but if I were coaching that Russian team, I would make my team strategy to do whatever it takes to get Polyansky the most points possible. Yes, this means all of his country men setting him up in anyway possible for a win - or as close to that as possible. No one from Russia ought to cross the line ahead of him. Every Russian male athlete should be working for Polyanksy - and they should be rewarded within the country system for doing so.

Does the country system reward such team work in Russia? I don't know.

Looking ahead now to Madrid, requires some looking back in time. First know that Hunter does not have the maximum number of races that go into this year's rankings. This is a good thing and means it is easier for Hunter to make a points gap than it is for Polyansky to make a gap at this point. Any points Hunter scores adds to his total. Polyansky needs to place higher and score more points than in a previous race, to build his points gap. You can see this by looking at the Olympic Rankings chart.

When they have raced at the same race, only twice in recent past, Hunter has gotten the nod. Kemper/Polyansky at Des Moines 2007 and Beijing 2007: 172 to 92 and 201 to 117 respectively. On paper, Kemper is the faster athlete.

In Madrid, ignoring any individual goals, the USA is sending four men and Russia is sending three. It is in the best interest of each country to sacrifice any individual goals to get Kemper or Polyansky in the best positions possible.

While the battle above is going on, don't turn a blind eye to Australia and Switerland. As I mentioned before, the four countries are close in points.

If I was a betting gal, I'd bet the USA will lose the position at the Richard's Bay World Cup; but get it back in Madrid and keep it through World Championships. Of course, I'm assuming no crashes, injuries, etc. for Kemper.

Give me odds on that prediction...

An Olympic slot is on the line this weekend at Richard's Bay World Cup

Gale Bernhardt — Tue, 29 Apr 2008 20:29:02 GMT

Do you plan to watch the South African Richard's Bay World Cup online at the ITU website this weekend? Perhaps you should?

In the world of getting Olympic slots for your country, recall from my column about the qualification process that only eight countries will get three men and three women on the start line at the Olympic Games.

Which countries can send three athletes per gender is determined by the "2008 Olympic Qualification" document found on this page. Just select that document to read all of the gory details.

What it boils down to, is Hunter Kemper is currently our third place, USA ranked male and his ranking points total 2359. Complete rankings can be found by selecting the "2008 Beijing Olympic Qualification Rankings" document, found here. Know that the USA is currently the last country to qualify three men on the start line for the Olympic Games.

The country closest to taking that spot away at this weekend's Richard's Bay World Cup race is Russia, specifically Dmitri Polyansky. His current Olympic rank puts him a mere 53 points away from Hunter Kemper. Looking at the scores he's accumulated in his recent races (419, 379, 293, 252, 238, 221, 167, 126, 126) you can see it is completely possible for him to replace his lowest score with a good performance in Richard's Bay.

I have not tried to do the math to figure out what place he needs to get to score that 53 points, but the race point system can be found here by selecting "ITU Points Critera".

If the USA men lose that third slot, the only way to get it back is by Hunter having a solid race at Madrid World Cup. That start list can be found here or the ITU BG Vancouver World Championships June 8th. World Championships is the cut-off date for the Olympic qualification process.

The last country to earn thee starts at the Olympic Games, for the men, depends on the following gentlemen racing for their respective countries. They are all separated by a couple hundred points, as of 4/26/08:

Brendan Sexton - Australia (2507)

Oliver Marceau - Switzerland (2452)

Hunter Kemper - USA (2359)

Dmitri Polyansky - Russia (2306)

Know that all of these guys are on the start list for the Madrid World Cup, found here.

Unless Kemper can perform well, and keep his points higher than the men listed above, we won't need to worry about qualifying a third man to the Olympics at the Des Moines World Cup race.

Stay tuned....

Cut the mustard as an Olympic triathlete?

Gale Bernhardt — Fri, 07 Mar 2008 01:41:04 GMT

Q: I have a niece that I think could cut the mustard as a triathlete for the next Olympic Games. I don't know how she does on the bike, but she seems to have a lot of horse power. In high school, she ran a 5:18 mile as a freshman and a 12:25 (indoor) 2 mile as a sophomore. She swims a 5:20, 500yd freestyle event.

I'm wondering if she should be involved in some athlete training program that can help her development?

A: Your niece definitely has potential. The time standards for Junior Elite Squad athletes associated with a program sponsored by USAT include a 12:30 for two miles and 5:35 for short course yards. She is within the time standards.

You can find the time standards on this link on the USA Triathlon website. Select the link titled, "Junior Elite Squad Criteria".

Know that a there are a couple of different classifications to help athletes get prepared to be an Elite Olympian. The first is a "Junior" and that is an athlete between the ages of 16 and 19. The second is called U23 (Under 23). There is some potential crossover between the Junior, U23 and Elite age ranges.

One example of crossover is Portugal's Vanessa Fernandes. Vanessa ended 2007 ranked number one in the World, at the age of 22. Her first World Cup win, racing as an Elite, came in Madrid in 2003 at age 18. She has won an incredible 19 World Cup races as an Elite, won World Championships and been on the podium numerous times. You can find a summary of her results here. Select "Athlete", then enter her last name.

Back to your niece and what can you do to help? If you can help her have some fun in short, local triathlons that is the first step. Help her fall in love with the joy of the sport. If she's having fun going fast, take it from there.

Current Events

Gale Bernhardt — Thu, 14 Jun 2007 23:20:00 GMT

Welcome to my blog. Many of you may be familiar with my columns or training plans on the Active Network. Those tools will continue to exist.

What you will see in the blog is a variety of current-event oriented topics. That means a mix of my personal adventures, training information I find useful for the athletes I coach, answers about how to modify pre-built triathlon training plans or cycling training plans to meet personal needs, advanced-athlete topics and more.

I look forward to traveling the blog journey with you.

Gale Bernhardt