I received an email asking me what I thought the odds are that the USA men will lose a starting line position for triathlon at the Olympics.

Great question.

In yesterday's blog I outlined the current issue. Let me give you more information today.

I think there is a high likelihood that the USA will indeed lose that third men's slot this weekend. The big question is by how much.

I don't know what the Russian Olympic qualifying process entails, so there might be some intersquad rivalries that I'm unaware of, but if I were coaching that Russian team, I would make my team strategy to do whatever it takes to get Polyansky the most points possible. Yes, this means all of his country men setting him up in anyway possible for a win - or as close to that as possible. No one from Russia ought to cross the line ahead of him. Every Russian male athlete should be working for Polyanksy - and they should be rewarded within the country system for doing so.

Does the country system reward such team work in Russia? I don't know.

Looking ahead now to Madrid, requires some looking back in time. First know that Hunter does not have the maximum number of races that go into this year's rankings. This is a good thing and means it is easier for Hunter to make a points gap than it is for Polyansky to make a gap at this point. Any points Hunter scores adds to his total. Polyansky needs to place higher and score more points than in a previous race, to build his points gap. You can see this by looking at the Olympic Rankings chart.

When they have raced at the same race, only twice in recent past, Hunter has gotten the nod. Kemper/Polyansky at Des Moines 2007 and Beijing 2007: 172 to 92 and 201 to 117 respectively. On paper, Kemper is the faster athlete.

In Madrid, ignoring any individual goals, the USA is sending four men and Russia is sending three. It is in the best interest of each country to sacrifice any individual goals to get Kemper or Polyansky in the best positions possible.

While the battle above is going on, don't turn a blind eye to Australia and Switerland. As I mentioned before, the four countries are close in points.

If I was a betting gal, I'd bet the USA will lose the position at the Richard's Bay World Cup; but get it back in Madrid and keep it through World Championships. Of course, I'm assuming no crashes, injuries, etc. for Kemper.

Give me odds on that prediction...

As promised, more on the race to the Olympic Games in the sport of triathlon.

In some sports, there is a single trials race to select the Olympic team. This has been the case in swimming and running in past years, as examples. Show up to one event, lay it all on the line to make the team. Hopefully, when the Olympic Games come along, you can lay it all on the line one more time to get on the podium as the top of your game, top in the world.

There is certainly attraction to a single event carrying the title "Olympic Trials". There are also some downsides. If you happen to be ill, injured or have an equipment problem at the Trials, your Olympic hopes are done. If you happen to be one of the best in the world, our USA hopes of you being on the podium are done because you didn't make the team.

If the USA knows you are one of the best in the world, why doesn't the National Governing Body (NGB) of USA Triathlon simply appoint you to the team? A committee selection process must be carefully designed to rule out personal biases, preferences and political picks.

Some sports do appoint team members through a selection committee, such as USA Cycling.

I have served on two USA Triathlon Olympic Selection Process Committees and designing a process to select the Olympic team is not easy. I've attended a US Olympic Committee seminar where all of the sports shared their selection processes, including the trials and tribulations of each process. I can tell you there is not a single, perfect selection process design.

The design for was intended to give athletes more than one opportunity to make the team. This reduces the non-selection of top athletes due to illness, injury or equipment problems. It gives experienced, long-time World Cup racers an opportunity as well as giving newcomers an opportunity.

Yes, there are three races and some might argue that chasing the final spot on the team is too exhausting. Reasonable argument, except the last female to make our 2004 Olympic team was also our only medalist, Susan Williams.

For those of you that have not been following World Cup racing, I will continue this blog series to help you learn about International Triathlon Union (ITU) racing and our Olympic team. The race to Beijing begins in just a few weeks.

A few quick facts and links for those of you that love details:

• Triathletes must be ranked in the top 125 in the world to be eligible to compete in the Olympic Games in the sport of triathlon. World Rankings are updated after key races and can be found under the "Rankings" tab at the ITU site.
• The 2008 Olympic Rankings are based on World Cup performances between June 1, 2006 and June 8, 2008. All the details for the International Triathlon Union's Olympic Qualification process for all countries can be found here.
• The entry process into World Cup events is limited. The selection process for USA athletes into World Cup events can be found here.

As the 2007 ITU World Championships wrap up this holiday weekend, elite triathletes around the world begin aiming for the 2007 Beijing World Cup races on September 15 and 16. It is a qualifying opportunity for many athletes and the last opportunity for racers and staff to see the Olympic course prior to the Games. A dress rehearsal not to be missed.

Enjoy your weekend ~