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Lorraine Perla's Blog

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Autumn Internationals Week One Betting Previews

 

Saturday, 07 November 2009

England v Australia, 14:30

Wales v New Zealand, 17:15

 

No Australian team made the finals of the Super 14 this season. Australia have lost five of their last six games, and not only that, but they were losers on the bookmakers’ handicaps, too. And yet, the layers believe that the Wallabies are a considerably better team than England in the opener to the autumn international series at Twickenham on Saturday.

 

On the face of it, it is easy to see why the layers have taken that particular view. The November internationals have been a happy hunting ground for the Tri Nations teams in recent times. The Six Nations teams have won just four of those 23 matches going back to the autumn of 2006. It’s a shocking record, and it shows quite how far ahead the southern hemisphere teams are at the moment.

 

Australia come into this weekend’s fixture with the heartbeat of the team ripped out of them. Their skipper, Stirling Mortlock is still absent through injury, and if that wasn’t enough, his midfield partner and vice-captain Berrick Barnes also misses out. It’s quite an absentee list, and one that England coach Martin Johnson will appreciate. The former world-cup winning skipper has named three of his 2003 colleagues in his matchday squad, which includes a return to action for hooker Steve Thompson, who last played for England in 2006. His hand was forced by 13 injuries to his Elite Player Squad of 32. On that injury list, there were seven certain starters.

 

So what we have is a watered down version of the full-blooded Test that we were all hoping for. Australia’s squad may be thin on the ground, but it is their lack of experience that may be the greater weakness. Despite England’s threadbare cupboard, the return of Jonny Wilkinson will steady the ship somewhat. Wilkinson is in sublime form for his new club Toulon right now, vying to be the league’s top scorer with Clermont’s Brock James. Although statistics can be misleading, England have always played better with their talismanic fly-half – with him they win 78% of the time, without him, 47% of the time.

 

Australia gave away countless penalties throughout this year’s Tri Nations, and if there are too many indiscretions from the Green and Gold team, Wilkinson will punish them with his deadly left boot. Wilkinson has said himself in the build up to this series that he is in the best form of his life, but one if you want impartiality, Dave Alred, his long-time kicking coach, thinks the same. Alred has said that Wilkinson’s remodelled kicking action is leagues ahead of what it used to be and that is enough to consider buying England’s kicking meters on the spreads. It’s an unconventional way of making money, but if Australia are half as bad at giving away penalties as they have been in the past few months, and Wilkinson is half as good at Alred says at converting them into points, the kicking meters could soar.

 

In the other international, Wales try to stand tall and proud in the face of the mighty All Blacks at Cardiff’s Millennium Stadium. A match between these two sides is always worth watching for sheer attacking intent, but as far as the handicap is concerned, the bookmakers look to have got it spot on. Where a bit of value may be squeezed out of the game is in the half-time market. Wales are a side that like to start quickly, as evidenced by the fact that they have been leading at half-time in seven of their last ten matches, and they were drawing after 40 minutes against France in the Six Nations.

 

New Zealand are the ultimate come from behind side, which was obvious when they beat Australia in that manner in Tokyo last week. As a result, punters should be looking to either side with Wales on the half-time handicap at about six or seven points, or go for the big win and back Wales to be leading at half-time, but for the All Blacks to win the game.

 

BetRepublic Betting Recommendations:

 

1pt buy England kicking meters with Sporting Index

1pt Back Wales on the best available half-time handicap

 

Check out BetRepublic.com for Autumn Rugby Internationals 2009 Rugby Betting Picks, Rugby Betting Tips.

66 Views 0 Comments Permalink Tags: league, tips, rugby, preview, 2009, autumn, betting, picks, internationals

Watch out, It’s Billie Jean vs. Bobby Riggs all over again this weekend, except for the fact that this Billie will have to beat TWELVE Bobbie’s.  The 5-year old female sensation Zenyatta will race against twelve males in the Breeders Cup Classic, second only to the Kentucky Derby as the biggest race of the year.  It will be the mares first time in the Classic and first time running against the boys.

 

No female has ever won this race and only three have even tried, with Jolyphya’s third place finish in 1992 being the best finish by a female so far.  But this is a very un-girl like girl - the mare stands at a massive seventeen hands (for readers who are unfamiliar with horse latitudes and longitudes seventeen hands is freakishly large.)

 

In addition to running against males for the first time, it will also be her first time running the distance of a mile and a quarter, but apparently both facts are overshadowed by her 13-0 lifetime record, because she is still the betting favourite at odds of 5-2.

 

Between now and Saturday, I will work on whittling down the field to isolate my play in The Classic and the other races on the card. Handicapping the thoroughbreds is very unlike ‘capping other sports, with your picks changing right up until post time.

 

My final plays, including head to head match ups, will be sent to team mates via PUB’its at Bet Republic, all throughout the day on Saturday.

 

To me, ‘capping the nags is more a matter of eliminating also-rans than picking the winner.  I haven’t completed all of my work, but I have my identified the first two horses that do not make my cut. 

 

I start by tossing out the Birds – Mine That Bird and Summer Bird.

 

Mine That Bird won the Derby in a huge upset.  His last start?  Disappointing 6th in the Good Wood stakes last month.  Already beaten by a girl, he gets no respect from me in this one.  Summer Bird?  Two problems – he doesn’t seem to like the synthetic surface that they have at Santa Anita, and, like Mine That Bird, he has also already been beaten by a girl.

 

I should mention that the girl that beat them both was Rachel Alexander who some, like her trainer, think is the best female horse today.  R.A. won’t be at the Breeder’s Cup this year, just like last year, because her trainer says she doesn’t like the artificial surface, plus, it’s easier to say you’re #1 if you don’t actually ever race the mare who many say is the real #1 – Zenyatta.  It is a hotly debated question in horse circles, and if they went head to head I would ride with Zenyatta. 

 

But the most anticipated and desired head to head match will never come off - Rachel’s people announced she is done for the year, and next year when she runs at four-years old, Zenyatta will be an old-for-horses six, and rightfully retired.  So, in the hypothetical race I stand by my pick of Zenyatta, since Rachel’s handlers seem to be gelded when it comes to her participating in a contest that would settle the debate once and for all.

 

For the rest of my eliminations, and final picks for the Classic and all the Breeders Cup races, be sure to join me at bet republic come Saturday.  See you there….

41 Views 0 Comments Permalink Tags: cup, preview, 2009, classic, picks, breeder’s, breeders

Australian stayer Shocking denied international contenders Crime Scene and Mourilyan to win the 5.5 million dollar (five million US) Melbourne Cup run over 3200 metres (two miles) at Flemington so check out more Melbourne Cup Horse Racing Betting Picks or Online Horse Racing Betting.

 

The Irish-bred four-year-old Shocking (9/1) raced three wide for most of the two-miler but finished too strong for Godolphin's Crime Scene (40/1).

 

Shocking had three-quarters of a length to spare over Crime Scene with the South African-trained Mourilyan (20/1) another one-and-a-half lengths away third.

 

It was a triumph for Australian jockey Corey Brown, who was beaten by a nose on English galloper Bauer in last year's Melbourne Cup.

 

It was another Melbourne Cup heartbreak for the global Godolphin stable with its third second-place finish in Australia's iconic horse race.

 

Crime Scene, Godolphin's only starter after deciding not to enter Kirklees, now joins Central Park (1999) and Give The Slip (2001) as the stable's runners-up in the Melbourne Cup.

 

Ridden by Kerrin McEvoy, Crime Scene looked set to draw away inside the final 200m (furlong) but could not go with Shocking in the last bit and was well beaten at the post.

 

Mourilyan, trained by South African Herman Brown and ridden by Glyn Schofield, finished strongly out of the pack to grab the minor placing for his owner, Chechan president Ramzan Kadyrov.

 

Only three internationally-trained horses have captured the Melbourne Cup -- Vintage Crop (1993), Media Puzzle (2002) and Delta Blues (2006).

 

Australian galloper Alcopop started 15/4 favourite and finished sixth, just ahead of last year's winner and topweight Viewed (11/2).

 

Viewed was the best finisher of Bart Cummings's three starters as the legendary Australian trainer chased a record 13th Melbourne Cup victory in 44 years.

 

Roman Emperor (10/1) was up with the lead to the home turn, but faded to finish 21st of the 23 starters, while Cummings's other runner, Allez Wonder (25/1), came in 16th.

 

Munsef, prepared by English trainer Ian Williams and sent out at 50/1, finished a well beaten 12th.

 

Newmarket trainer Luca Cumani, who finished second with Bauer and Purple Moon in the last two Melbourne Cups, was never a show with his 25/1 chance Basaltico, who finished 18th.

 

Check out BetRepublic for latest Melbourne Cup Horse Racing Picks, Horse Racing Betting Tips.

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Las Vegas NHRA Nationals Motor Sports, Larry Dixon wanted to gain enough ground on Top Fuel point’s leader Tony Schumacher to give his team a legitimate chance to win the championship.

 

Dixon failed to win at The Strip at Las Vegas Motor Speedway on Sunday, but he closed to within one point of Schumacher with the season finale in Pomona, Calif., left on the schedule.

 

Sunday's NHRA Nationals Motor Sports Winners were Spencer Massey in Top Fuel, Robert Hight in Funny Car and Larry Morgan in Pro Stock.

 

Dixon erased most of the 47-point deficit he had at the start of the weekend after Schumacher lost in the second round to teammate Cory McClenathan.

 

"Man, that was a tough way to go out," Schumacher said. "You have to tip your hat to Cory and his team. They did what they had to do.

 

"I'm actually pretty upset with myself. I probably did too much thinking out there. That's not how you should perform when you're going for a championship."

 

Dixon reached the final but smoked the tires of his Al-Anabi Racing dragster off the starting line against Massey's U.S. Smokeless dragster. Massey posted a 3.827-second pass at 314.53 mph to Dixon's 5.503 seconds at 174.87 mph.

 

"To make up 46 points in one weekend is big, especially against that team," Dixon said. "It's all going to come down to Pomona and it might even come down to those qualifying points. If not for them we might be a round or two back. It's going to be interesting to see how it all turns out."

 

It was Massey's second victory of the season and will go a long way toward wrapping up the NHRA's Rookie of the Year award.

 

"If it happens, it happens," Massey said. "We've got a couple of wins now, and if it underlines or puts a check next to my name then that's good. I can't wait to get to Pomona to see if it came out that way."

 

Funny Car driver Hight's Auto Club Ford Mustang opened up a commanding championship lead thanks to his final-round win over Jack Beckman and the Valvoline/MTS Dodge Charger. Hight ran 4.125 seconds at 304.46 mph to Beckman's 4.154 seconds at 303.16 mph.

 

"In the past, we've come into Vegas and left a lot on the table," Hight said. "We ran well, qualified good, then lost first round. But [crew chief] Jimmy Prock has done such a great job down the stretch this year. We've got three wins in the five [playoff] races. That is stout, and it's all been on performance. We've not gotten lucky; I've not had to pedal the car. We've just out-muscled these guys."

 

Hight beat second-place Ashley Force Hood in the first round and now leads his sister-in-law and teammate by 105 points with a maximum of four rounds of racing remaining.

 

"I believe that if she would have beat me today she would [have won the event]," Hight said. "They are the reason we are in this [championship playoff]. They fixed us when we were lost.

 

"That was the toughest round we had this year for sure."

 

Pro Stock's Mike Edwards was denied in his first chance to clinch the class championship. Second-place Greg Anderson and his Summit Racing Equipment Pontiac GXP lost to Greg Stanfield's Pontiac on a holeshot in the second round. All Edwards had to do was win in the same session and the championship was his.

 

However, a few minutes after Anderson lost, Edwards' Young Life Pontiac GXP lost to Larry Morgan's Lucas Oil Dodge, also on a holeshot. Now Edwards needs only to show up at Pomona and make one qualifying run to take the title.

 

Morgan took back the borrowed engine that final-round opponent Rickie Jones used in his Quarter Max Dodge before the final round as part of a pre-arranged agreement.

 

Jones borrowed an engine from Morgan when the weekend began, because Jones was not sure he could qualify much less reach the final with the engine he had. Morgan reclaimed the engine before the final round, forcing Jones to go to a backup. Morgan then ran 6.720 seconds at 205.69 mph to Jones' 6.794 seconds at 203.16 mph.

 

"They were kind of crippled coming into this race, but they wanted to come here and the World Finals," Morgan said. "They burnt up a pushrod in the engine I had sold them previously so I let him have my spare because I knew he could qualify with it.

 

"The guys that work for me get a percentage of my car's [winnings]. They thought I shouldn't give the guy an engine to beat me up with. We agreed that if we [both] reached the final, he'd have to run his own engine. I feel real good about our decision."

 

This win was Morgan's first in seven years.

 

Check out BetRepublic for latest Motor Sports betting Odds, Motor Sports Picks

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If such a thing as poetic justice existed in horse racing, then Mark Kavanagh would win tomorrow's Victoria Derby at Flemington.

 

BetRepublic through its free horse racing tips, giving a clue to all the horse racing betting people about the winning chances of Mark Kavanagh at Victoria Derby.

 

Kavanagh saddles up the favourite, Shamoline Warrior, in the $1.5 million event in a bid to extract some glory from a spring carnival that has yet to deliver all he had hoped.

 

In the past month the trainer has lost stable stars Maldivian and Cats Whisker to injury, and last week he watched his champion Whobegotyou go under in the Cox Plate as a short-priced favourite.

 

Whobegotyou ran second in last year's Derby behind Rebel Raider, which, ironically, is the half-brother to Shamoline Warrior which bolted in the Norman Robinson Stakes (2,000m) a fortnight ago.

 

Kavanagh told this morning's Derby media conference that he did not know whether Shamoline Warrior can stay the distance.

 

"It's a pretty strong Derby. There's a rap on a lot of horses and the 2,500 metres is certainly the key to the whole race," he said.

 

"We have set him specifically for this race and he's done everything to please us along the way. There's been no hiccups."

 

Rebel Raider had not won his Derby when Kavanagh spent his budget to buy Shamoline Warrior for a syndicate of owners who had given him only $60,000.

 

"At the time [Shamoline Warrior] was a bit of an ugly duckling but he's certainly a swan now," Kavanagh said.

 

"There's no doubt this race is a maker of champions. He might have cost $400,000 or $500,000 [if Rebel Raider been a Derby winner then]."

 

Rain Forecast

 

Shamoline Warrior has three wins and a second on dead tracks and the prospect of further rain in Melbourne should not dent his chances.

Derby day racegoers have been told to prepare for anything as inclement weather settles on the city.

 

A spokesman for the Weather Bureau says storms and showers are forecast for Melbourne tonight and again tomorrow.

 

He says it is hit and miss whether Flemington will see much rain, which would take the edge off the track after a week of warm and dry conditions.

 

Track manager Mick Goodie says Flemington was rated a dead 4 and that little rain had been registered this morning.

 

For more horse racing betting picks & are available at BetRepublic Horse racing Betting tips.

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Panasonic Toyota Racing reaches the end of a successful season with a trip to the United Arab Emirates for the first-ever Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, held on the new Yas Marina Circuit. Not only is this weekend's race held at a new venue, it is also held in unique conditions with the race starting in daylight at 5pm local time but finishing in darkness and under floodlights 55 laps later.

 

The track, which will become the 67th to hold a Formula 1 World Championship race, winds its way around Yas Marina through a series of 90° turns but also includes two long back straights where the cars are expected to reach over 300km/h.

 

Toyota is looking to add to the 54.5 points it has scored already this season, having been unfortunate to miss out in the Brazilian Grand Prix when Jarno Trulli was involved in an accident while challenging for another podium finish. However, the Italian racer is eager to end the season on a high...

 

"It's been an up-and-down season for us with such a strong start followed by some disappointing races in Europe then a really competitive end to the year,” he said. “As Abu Dhabi is a new track it's impossible to predict how we will perform but after the speed we showed in the last three races I am confident of finishing the year on a high. I was extremely frustrated to be eliminated by an accident in Brazil because we had looked very quick all weekend and I genuinely believe we had a fantastic chance of finishing on the podium. So I am confident for this weekend and I am really motivated to get another great result before the season ends. Abu Dhabi looks like another fantastic new venue and I am really interested to see what the track is like to drive so I can't wait for practice to begin on Friday."

127 Views 0 Comments Permalink Tags: online, tips, free, racing, system, betting, picks, motor
Machida's skill and mastery out-class Shogun's aggressive muay thai. Machida over Shogun. At -405 I won't be betting on this one.

- Rothwell is my dog pick for this event. Valesquez is a rising star, but Rothwell's experience may actually be the difference here. Underdog pick is Rothwell at +235.

- I like Stevenson's chances against Fisher. Although Fisher could win this standing up, Stevenson will likely get Fisher to the ground and control the fight. I expect this one to go to a UD for Stevenson. I'm with the UFC betting odds makers here. Stevenson at -245 is a fair bet.

- Remember Yoshida eating Koschek's fists then being carried out of the cage on a stretcher? Johnson surely does. Many think this fight will be a replay as Johnson is being seen as a stronger, more physical fighter capable of KO'ing Yoshida. If it goes to the ground, Yoshida is favored. The problem is that Johnson is strong enough put off the takedown. I'm going with odds on this one. Johnson is -315. A small dog on Yoshida at +255 was being considered though.

- Okami's favored at -225 to Sonnen's +185 line. I believe this is Okami's third straight under card bout. He was once very close to getting a title shot with Silva until he broke his hand. Cote got the nod instead. Okami's winning again, but maybe not in a way that puts him in the "entertainment" column. Okami's got to dominate and destroy in order to get to the main card. Sonnen's a great match-up. Ultimately, this could end up in a decision.

- The Barry/Hardonk match-up could end with one of the fighters getting his walking papers. Reach and experience do go to Hardonk. Barry's 1-1 UFC, while Hardonk's 4-3 UFC. Lines are -110 for Barry, -120 for Hardonk. Barry's still fighting at heavyweight at 5'11". Personally, I'm staying away from this one. Barry should have too. (Sidenote: this could be a stand-up, leg-kick brawl - TKO on the way.)

- Darth Bader returns from a MCL and PCL knee injury from this April. The TUF 8 LHW winner, Ryan Bader, is heavily favored over Eric Schafer. At -435 for Bader and +355 for Schafer, you can see what the sportsbooks think of Schafer's chances. I agree.

Check out BetRepublic.com for all the most updated UFC 104 odds and the UFC 104 picks.
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Tennis Betting Preview - 2009 Valencia Open

 

“The Valencia Tournament will soon become one of the most attractive in the world”

 

Valencia is about to enter the world of Tennis with the first ever VALENCIA OPEN 500

 

David Seraphim, executive director of the Valencia Open tennis tournament 500, to be held from 2 to November 8 in the Agora of the City of Arts and Sciences and Hard Prize Money: 2019000. Tennis betting lovers can start betting on tennis players at various tennis Sports betting sites.

 

Valencian Juan Carlos Ferrero is recognized as one of the best players in the world, playing brilliantly at the U.S. Open and the Davis Cup semi-final against Israel. Co-owner with David Ferrer of the Valencia Tennis Open 500, Ferrero talked to us about a tournament in which many of the world’s top 50 players will participate, a tennis super-gala in an exceptional setting.

 

The Valencia Open 500 Tennis, which will be held from 2nd to 8th of November,

 

On Thursday 5th and Friday 6th there will be special "night" matches, as already proves popular in the US Open. For the matches Tennis Betting Picks & Tennis Betting odds are available at BetRepublic.com.

 

The tournament has already confirmed the presence of three of the 'top ten' in Andy Murray, Andy Roddick and Fernando Verdasco, as well as other players such as David Ferrer, Tommy Robredo, Juan Carlos Ferrero and Feliciano Lopez. The world number 1, Rafael Nadal has not been ruled out and is in negotiations.

 

It is already clear that the Valencia Open 500 will be one of the most spectacular tournaments in the world and one of the best tennis tournaments for betting.  Andy Murray, Andy Roddick, Juan Carlos Ferrero, David Ferrer are already joined the tournaments so we are expecting a huge tennis bettings on them. This may be the first edition of the Valencia Open 500 but it promises plenty – and is a tournament opens to everybody.

 

Check out BetRepublic for 2009 Valencia Open Tennis Betting Picks & Preview.

43 Views 0 Comments Permalink Tags: tennis, tips, system, betting, odds, lines

The Los Angeles Angels cut into the New York Yankees lead in the ALCS with a 7-6 win in Baseball Betting Picks Game 5 Thursday night.

 

The Angels got to A.J. Burnett early, piling up four hits and four runs in the first innings.  Burnett walked lead off batter Chone Figgins on five pitches, gave up a double to Bobby Abreu and an 2-RBI base hit to Hunter.  Guerrero doubled, Morales singled and the Yankees were quickly down by four.

 

John Lackey pitched six scoreless innings but found trouble in the seventh.  With one out, he gave up a double to Melky Cabrera and back-to-back walks to Jorge Posada and Derek Jeter.  That brought the hook for Lackey.

 

The bullpen couldn't stop the bleeding, and in fact made it worse, giving up a double to Mark Teixeira, an RBI-single to Hideki Matsui and a triple to Robinson Cano.  The Yankees had turned a four-run deficit into a two-run lead in one inning.

 

Not ready to call it a season just yet, the Angels rebounded quickly, chasing Burnett from the ball game with a lead-off base hit from Jeff Mathis and a walk from Erick Aybar.  This time it was the Yankees bullpen that couldn't get the job done, giving up another walk, two more hits and ultimately the lead in the game.

 

Abreu grounded to first to score Mathis, Guerrero singled to center to plate Aybar and Morales dropped a ball in right field to bring home Hunter and put the Angels back on top for good.

 

Los Angeles went to Jered Weaver for the eighth and Brian Fuentes for the ninth.  Weaver was perfect while Fuentes walked a couple and hit another to load the bases but got Nick Swisher to ground out for the save.  Kevin Jepsen got the win for getting the final out in the top of the seventh.

 

The win sends the series back to New York this weekend. In  Baseball Betting Picks Game six is set for Saturday with Joe Saunders taking the mound for Los Angeles against Andy Pettitte.

 

Saunders started Game 2 for the Angels and allowed just two runs over seven innings but left with the game tied.  Pettitte started Game 3 for the Yankees and gave up 3 runs on seven innings and also didn't figure in the decision.

60 Views 0 Comments Permalink Tags: new, york, baseball, yankees, edge, game, 5, betting, picks, angels, lines
BetRepublic Premier League Preview Show for 24-25 Oct 2009

It’s another busy weekend of football at online sports betting community. Members of fast-growing sports betting community are looking forward to a great weekend of football.

Sunday sees the annual "grudge match" between Liverpool and Man Utd which normally provides sports bettors with several very exciting betting prospects.

Where is the betting value to be had? The answers are provided by former professional footballer Steve Claridge and football betting expert James Eastham, who guide BR members through each game of top flight football in their weekly Premier League Preview Show.

On every match bookmaker’s price up over 100 betting markets which can be a bit of a minefield for sports bettors. But there is always a great value bet to make and this is where Steve and James come in. They are able to use their knowledge and insight into the game to select the bets they think make the best sense to football bettors.

"We trawl the entire market for the best bets to make," says Eastham. "There is always a smart play to make and we usually manage to root out the value."

Punters who have followed Eastham and Claridge's picks every week so far in the 2009/10 season have made a decent profit to level stakes.

Below are the matches they are covering in their Premier League Preview Show this weekend. BR members can log on to bet republic to see the show from 10pm on Thursday evening.

They can also view 3-minute previews for each game on our YouTube channel at www.youtube.com/slicker66.
SATURDAY, 24 OCTOBER 2009


BIRMINGHAM v SUNDERLAND

Birmingham have lost three games in a row and five of their last six

Blues have scored in their last four and in five of their last six as well

Sunderland’s home form is a lot better than their away form – they’ve won their last four home matches but picked up just one point from their last possible nine on the road

Recommended Bets:

Sunderland +0 Asian handicaps (17/20)

Under 2.5 goals (4/5)

BURNLEY v WIGAN

Burnley’s home form has been magnificent this season – four wins out of four, including victories over Man Utd (1-0) and Everton (1-0)

Wigan have been unpredictable but their away form has been consistently poor – since their opening-day 2-0 win at Aston Villa they’ve lost at Everton (1-2), Arsenal (0-4) and Hull (1-2)

Recommended Bets: 

Draw (12/5)

Both teams to score (4/6)

CHELSEA v BLACKBURN

Chelsea have lost two of their last three league games but have a 100% home record – victories over Hull (2-1), Burnley (3-0), Tottenham (3-0) and Liverpool (2-0)

Blackburn really need to improve on the road – they’ve lost three out of three against Sunderland (1-2), Everton (0-3) and Arsenal (2-6)

Chelsea have won four and drawn one of the last five head-to-heads, scoring 13 goals in the process while conceding just two

Recommended Bets:

Blackburn +2 Asian handicap (4/5)

Both teams to score (7/5)

HULL v PORTSMOUTH

This is a vital clash between two sides caught in the relegation zone

Hull’s two wins this season have come at home to lowly opposition – 1-0 v Bolton and 2-1 v Wigan

Portsmouth’s only win of the season came in their last away game, 1-0 at Wolves

Both games ended in draws between the sides last season – the final score in Hull was 0-0, and the result in Portsmouth 2-2

Recommended Bets:

Portsmouth +0 Asian handicaps (21/20)

Under 2.5 goals (17/20)

TOTTENHAM v STOKE

Spurs’ nine league games this season have all had over 2.5 goals. Both teams have scored in seven of those games, with Tottenham managing to keep a clean sheet only once, v Burnley (5-0)

Stoke have won just two out of 23 away games since promotion to the Premier League last season. They’ve drawn three out of four on the road this season (v Birmingham, Bolton and Everton)

Recommended Bets:

Over 3 goals (21/20)

Both teams to score (4/5)

WOLVES v ASTON VILLA

Wolves lost their last home game v Portsmouth (0-1) having gone W1-D1-L1 at home before that

Six of Wolves’ nine league games have had under 2.5 goals

Villa have won five and drawn one of their last seven league games, including victories over Liverpool (3-1) and Chelsea (2-1)

Recommended Bets:

Aston Villa (6/5)

Aston Villa to win to nil (13/5)

SUNDAY, 25 OCTOBER 2009

BOLTON v EVERTON

Bolton are still seeking their first home win of the season. They’ve lost twice (0-1 v Sunderland and 2-3 v Liverpool) and drawn their last two at home (1-1 v Stoke and 2-2 v Tottenham)

Everton have drawn their last two games v Wolves and Stoke (both 1-1) at home – but won their last away game, at Portsmouth (1-0)

Everton have an excellent record at the Reebok – they’ve won four, drawn four and lost just two of 10 games in the Premier League era

Recommended Bets:

Draw (12/5)

Both teams to score (7/10)



LIVERPOOL v MAN UTD

Liverpool has already lost four league games this season and are seven points behind league leaders Man Utd

Liverpool did the double over Man Utd last season, winning 2-1 at Anfield and 4-1 at Old Trafford

That was Rafa Benitez’s first home win over United since taking charge – Liverpool had lost three and drawn one of their previous four league meetings at Anfield with the Spaniard in charge

All four of those head-to-heads leading up to Liverpool’s 2-1 win last season had under 1.5 goals

Recommended Bets:

Draw (12/5)

Over 2.25 goals (17/20)

MAN CITY v FULHAM

Games between these two teams in Manchester are nearly always high-scoring – six out of eight Premier League head-to-heads have had over 2.5 goals, with four of those games having over 3.5 goals and both teams scoring in seven of the eight clashes

Man City has won three out of three at home this season – 1-0 v Wolves, 4-2 v Arsenal and 3-1 v West Ham

Fulham have won one, drawn one and lost two of their four away games

Recommended Bets:

Man City -1 Asian handicap (19/20)

Over 2.5 goals (19/20)

WEST HAM v ARSENAL

The Hammers lie next to bottom in the table, having lost four and drawn one of their last five league games

Arsenal’s form couldn’t be more different – they’ve won four games on the run since their 4-2 defeat at Manchester City, beating Wigan (4-0), Fulham (1-0), Blackburn (6-2) and Birmingham City (3-1)

Arsenal has an excellent record at Upton Park – they’ve won seven, drawn five and lost just two of the 14 head-to-heads between the sides in the Premier League era

Recommended Bets:

West Ham +1 Asian handicap (11/10)

Under 2.75 goals (19/20)
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In latest horse racing picks, Howard Johnson hopes a breathing operation can help Tidal Bay return to his best at Aintree on Saturday.
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UFC  104 Machida Vs Shogun Match Preview & UFC Betting Picks

Mauricio Shogun Rua wants Machida's LHW Belt.

Mauricio Shogun Rua used to rumble through pride opponents with sheer aggression. TKO's by soccer kicks and stomps. Come on! Shogun rocked people. He won the PRIDE Fighting Championship's 2005 MW Grand Prix.  If one of Shogun's matches went to the later rounds he could even pull out a submission victory. In his first 18 fights only two went to the final bell and Shogun came out victorious. Both wins were by unanimous submission.

Shogun is a powerful, pressing muay thai striker and a BJJ black belt who will punch your head off or kick you on the ground until you quit or the referee saves you. That is Shogun.

Before joining the UFC, Shogun's list of victims, and I don't use the word lightly, include Evangelista Santos, Akihiro Gono, Quinton "BA Baracus, I'm done fighting" Jackson, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Alistair Overeem (x2), Ricardo Arona, and Kevin Randleman. Many of these top level men were punished. This is the Shogun the UFC signed, this is the Shogun the UFC fans wanted and expected. What they got was something different.

The problem was that Shogun has knees, and sometimes they don't always hold together. Shogun's knee injury during training did not allow for a competitive camp and he lacked the fitness to compete against Forrest Griffin. After losing the first two rounds, Shogun ultimately succumed to a rear-naked-choke in the final seconds of the third round. Shogun looked exhausted.  His fans slumped in their chairs and looked bewildered. I remember that. I can accept the injury excuse/reason. It really didn't look like Shogun. There was also the fact that it was his first fight under the Unified Rules of MMA, which include no kicks and knees to the head of a downed opponent. Injured, out of shape and lacking weapons. Shogun looses the match and the chance to make a first impression on UFC fans that hadn't seen him before.

You can find all the UFC 104 previews, UFC 104 odds and UFC Betting Tips at BetRepublic.com

Shogun's next chance was also a chance to avenge his earlier loss to Mark Coleman. This time UFC fans had a chance to see two well known fighters almost not make it to the end of the fight due to exhaustion. "Fight of the Night" or not, nothing overly impressed me here except the fact that someone actually won before I fell asleep. I was beginning to wonder if Shogun was just collecting the cheques  and finishing out a contract before retiring. Then came Liddell. The Iceman was out in the first round due to Shogun's big left hook and a flurry of hammer fists. This was getting back on track, even if it was against a fading Liddell.

So the question remains, do we get the original Shogun, or the lumbering, out of breath Shogun. My guess is that Shogun has had a full camp, he's fit and adjusted to the cage, and is more than ready for a title fight. He's too much a professional and too proud of a guy to take this fight anything less than completely serious. I expect a new and improved Shogun.

I expect Machida is expecting the same.

That may be Shogun's downfall against Machida. Shogun's aggressive style is exactly what a counter-puncher loves, and exactly what Machida is waiting for. I think Machida's accuracy and timing will prove to be too much for Shogun.

Shogun's coach, Andre Dida disagrees, "For the pace of fighting that Lyoto forces, always looking for the knockout, I think this fight won’t go past the third round. Shogun will knock out him in the 3rd round for sure. Shogun is going to be the unique guy to show the world how to beat Lyoto. Everyone will learn how to beat Machida so on."

UFC 104 Picks: Machida by TKO, later rounds.

Sorry Shogun.

Check out BetRepublic sports betting community for UFC betting tips & picks, and Sports Betting tips
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NFL Betting Picks is on its way in giving bookies report card and brief summary on ATS Roundups.

 

Minn @ St L: This was the number on favorite game of the NFL Betting public, getting mostly one-way action on Minnesota. Line opened at Minny -10 and closed at -11, with over 92% of the action on the Vikes. When the Vikings won by 28, it was a bad start to the day for the books. Line was off by 18 points and the house got killed on the game. GRADE: F

Dal @ KC: Line opened at Dal – 8 ½ and was bet all the way down to Dal -7. When the Cowboys had to come from behind to win in OT, the books took their second beating of the day. Line was only off by 2 ½, but with the Chiefs as the most popular dog of the day with the wagering public the house lost big again. GRADE: F

Wash @ Car: Line opened at Panthers -4 and closed at 5 ½. Carolina won, but only by 3 points so the house got a little back on this game. Line was off by only 1 point and the books made money on this one. GRADE: A

Oak @ NYG: Like the game above, the public did not think the dog was attractive at the opening number. Here, NY opened 15 ½ and closed -16’. Giants beat the NFL’s worst - the LA Raiders - by a whopping 37 points. Line was off by 21 ½. GRADE: F-

Ind @ Ten: Another bad number here. Indy opened at -3, the books too scared to go off that key number. The public jumped all over the visiting Colts against the winless Titans, and Indy won 31-9. Number was off by 19, the public, as is their tendency, jumped all over the favorite in the only game on the board, and the house got hit again. GRADE: F

NYJ @ Mia: Best game of the week for the bookies and the house, and it couldn’t come soon enough. The odds makers opened NY at -1 and the sports betting public was still buying into the Ryan-led Jets D as near-invincible theory – the Jets closed at -3 with a price on it! Miami was in control the whole way, emerging with a 4 point win. The opening line was off by 5, but the house, who could ill afford to end the week with another loser, profited nicely. GRADE: B


ATS Roundup - NFL Betting:

Four opening lines within 3 points of the final score. (Five week total at 13 of 76!)

SIX of fourteen games were off by ten or more points (five week total at 39 of 76.)

Favorites went 6-8 (five week total at 38-37-1.)

There were no flip-flops (games where teams opened as favs and closed as dogs). These are 4-0 on the season now.

Double digit dogs went 1-3 (five week total at 4-8.)

Home favorites went 4-4. (Five week total at 27-23-1.)

Home dogs went 4-2 (five week total at 13-12.)

NFC vs. AFC is 10-7 ATS

Totals: 7 overs 7 unders 1 push (five week total at 39 overs, 36 unders.)

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In their weekly Premier League Preview Show on betrepublic, this week Steve Claridge and James Eastham are covering Saturday's World Cup Qualifiers...

Claridge and Eastham's show will be streamed on fast-growing sports betting community from 10pm UK time on Thursday evening.

This weekend sees a full fixture list of World Cup Qualifiers and BetRepublic's James Eastham, alongside former pro footballer Steve Claridge, are on hand to guide sports bettors towards the best bets to make.

Every week Claridge and Eastham cover the English Premier League but this weekend has turned their attention to Saturday's Internationals.

They have gone through the 21 matches and for betting purposes have selected seven that offer punters the greatest betting value.

"Football bettors should not bet on every single game as it would be difficult to win with bookmakers' prices so tight," says Eastham. "But Steve Claridge and I have chosen the matches we think are the best ones to bet on."

Alternatively, clips of the show will be broadcast on BetRepublic's You Tube channel at www.youtube.com/slicker66

These are the matches featured in this week's show, with a few relevant stats and two of Claridge and Eastham's betting recommendations for each game.

DENMARK v SWEDEN

Denmark is three points clear at the top of the table. They’re unbeaten so far – five wins and three draws

Sweden are in second place on 15pts but Portugal and Hungary are just behind on 13pts so Sweden need something out of this game to be sure of hanging on to second place

All teams in the group have two games to go, with Sweden finishing at home to Albania next Wednesday

Denmark won the first meeting between the sides 1-0 in Sweden in June. Wolfsburg playmaker Thomas Kahlenberg was the scorer

Recommended Bets:

Draw (23/10)

Both teams to score (5/6)

PORTUGAL v HUNGARY

It’s a huge game for Portugal, who are back in the race for qualifying after their crucial 1-0 win in Hungary last month
 
Portugal and Hungary lie third and fourth respectively, both on 13pts. They’re two points behind second-placed Sweden so can move into second place by winning here if Sweden lose in Denmark

Portugal have been one of the biggest disappointments of the qualifiers but are unbeaten in their last six games, drawing four times and winning twice.

Three of those draws finished goalless. Portugal’s final qualifier is at home to Malta, so if they do move into second place this weekend they’ll be almost certain of reaching the qualifiers

A lack of goals is Portugal’s main problem – since their opening 4-0 win in Malta, they’ve scored just six goals in seven games. Real Madrid centre-half Pepe scored the only goal in Portugal’s 1-0 win in Hungary when the sides met last month

Hungary have a poor record against the group’s better teams – they’ve lost at home to Sweden (1-2) and Portugal (0-1) following a home draw v Denmark (0-0) and have lost in Sweden (1-2)

Recommended Bets:

Hungary +2 Asian handicap (9/10)

Liedson to score anytime for Portugal (evens)

REP IRELAND v ITALY

Rep Ireland have to win to stand any chance of catching group leaders Italy because Italy are four points clear at the top with only two games to go

The Irish earned a tremendous 1-1 draw in Italy last April, with Robbie Keane equalising two minutes from time following Iaquinta’s opener

The Republic have won two and drawn one of their three games at home so far

Recommended Bets:

Draw (2/1)

Under 2 goals (19/20)

RUSSIA v GERMANY

This game will almost certainly decide the group winner, as Russia and Germany are head and shoulders above the rest at the top of Group 4

Germany have 22pts and Russia 21pts and both teams have played eight games – so a win for Germany would clinch top spot for them, while a Russia win would see them leapfrog their rivals before their final game away to group whipping boys Azerbaijan next Wednesday

Germany have won seven and drawn one of their eight games so far, while Russia have won seven and lost one

Germany won 2-1 on home soil when the sides met 12 months ago, with Lukas Podolski and Michael Ballack scoring for the hosts and Andriy Arshavin getting on the score sheet for Russia

Recommended Bets:

Over 2.5 goals (19/20)

Andriy Arshavin to score anytime for Russia (12/5)

SERBIA v ROMANIA

Serbia has the chance to clinch their World Cup spot at home to Romania. The Serbs are currently four points ahead of France at the top of Group 7, so a win here would make them group winners

Romania has nothing to play for – they’re next to bottom with just nine points, meaning they can no longer qualify for the finals.

Serbia won the first meeting between the sides 3-2 in Romania – and Ivanovic got on the score sheet on that occasion. He’s scored three goals in the qualifiers so far.

Four out of eight games for both teams have had over 2.5 goals

Recommended Bets:

Over 2.5 goals (10/11)

Branislav Ivanovic to score anytime for Serbia (6/1)

UKRAINE v ENGLAND

England won the first meeting between the sides 2-1 at Wembley last April. John Terry scored an 85th-minute winner after Andriy Shevchenko had equalised Peter Crouch’s opener

Both teams have scored in five of England’s six games against teams other than Andorra and seven of England’s eight qualifiers have had over 2.5 goals, with six having over 3.5 goals

Five of Ukraine’s eight qualifiers have had over 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring in four of those games

Ukraine are still playing for second place in the group – a win here will lift them one place and a point above Croatia, with one game to play

Since Ukraine’s final game is at home to Andorra, a win over England would all but seal their place in the play-offs

Recommended Bets:

Ukraine +0 Asian handicap (evens)

Both teams to score (5/6)

ARGENTINA v PERU

Argentina are in danger of missing out on the World Cup finals. They lie fifth in the South American qualifying pool, a position that would give them a place in the play-offs against the fourth-placed team from the North, Central American and Caribbean zone.

Argentina is just one point behind fourth-placed Chile, but can still be overtaken – Uruguay and Venezuela are only a point behind, while Colombia are only two points behind.

All teams in the group have played 16 games and have two games to go.

The good news for Argentina in that Peru is the group’s whipping boys – they’ve lost 10 of their 16 qualifiers, picking up just 10 points.

Argentina faces Uruguay in their final qualifier next Wednesday, so Diego Maradona’s side will want to maintain their lead over Uruguay at the very least before that game

Recommended Bets:

Under 3.5 goals (19/20)

Martin Palermo to score anytime for Argentina (5/4)

THE BIG THREE:

Denmark v Sweden both teams to score (5/6)

Germany v Russia over 2.5 goals (19/20)

Ukraine v England both teams to score (5/6)

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LorrainePerla

LorrainePerla

 Member since: Oct 5, 2009

Get sports betting tips, sports betting advice. Place for sports betting picks, sports betting information. Know how to bet on sports, Get sports betting advice. Sports Betting Handicappers services at Betrepublic.com

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