Active Community: Message List - 1/2 MARATHON PREDICTION based on this long training run

Re: 1/2 MARATHON PREDICTION based on this long training run

guest — Fri, 12 May 2006 20:02:00 GMT

quote:
Originally posted by webfoot:
leitnerj wrote :
"One might have guessed that
starting out on the fast side would have bonked me, but
that wasn't the case. I just naturally slowed down as my
heart rate drifted and as the temperature warmed up into
the 60s. If I had started out doing 7:05-7:10, I'm quite
certain my times at the end would not have been any
better and I would have finished probably in 3:18-3:20
rather than 3:12."

Each his own but I gotta respectively disagree;
At Boston this year I went out at ~ 15-20 seconds/mile slower then my overall pace average for the first 4 miles (granted, it is downhill) then picked it up to 80-85% max HR (before then running at ~ 70-75% max HR). Finish was probably around 87-90% maxHR.

I finished the last couple of miles at a sub-7:10 pace. Pretty steady the whole way (1:34:16 first half, 1:34:29 second half)

By starting out far more conservative then you did, I averaged a 7:12 pace for the race and finished the race at sub-7:10 for last few miles. I also finished 4 min faster then you, not the 8 minutes behind you predicted.

You went from a 6:40 pace first mile to 8 min pace last mile, thats IS bonking in my book. If you started slower your heart rate would not have been so high for the relative rate you were moving.

Just food for thought. Congrats though on that 3:12, took me a lot of races just to crack the 3:10 mark.....

Once again, it's all hindsight. You believe it's pace, I believe it's
level of effort. Just to be clear, I ran the last mile of the race in
about 7:30 and the one before I ran in around 8:20, which also had one of
the tallest hills of the course. Also, since I run a lot of marathons
(this was my 4th regular marathon of the year and I had also done
a 50 miler 3 weeks before and a 50k 2 weeks before that), I always
save something. At the time when most good runners push it out
and reach inside, I ease up and let off. Then I resume normal
training the next day. Once I hit 80% of max heart rate at mile 8,
I started to ease off and fell into a nice groove. I went into the
race with a 3:19 PR from 6 weeks earlier, thinking that I could
sustain maybe a 7:20, but since my effort level (and HR) was
low, I pushed a bit earlier. In this case, I was doing careful
calculations for the last 8 miles or so of how hard I would have
to push to stay under 3:16. No doubt, I'm a wuss in races,
almost as much as I am in training (no speedwork, all
lollygagging).

Edited to add an important fact: I don't even pay attention
to my pace until at least at mile 16 - I just watch my level
of effort and heart rate. I just record the splits for later. I would
have considered it silly to keep my heart rate in the low 150s-160s
for a while (which is my range for a 50 mile race) just to keep my
pace under control.
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[http://This message has been edited by leitnerj (edited May-12-2006).|http://This message has been edited by leitnerj (edited May-12-2006).]

Re: 1/2 MARATHON PREDICTION based on this long training run

guest — Mon, 22 May 2006 05:05:00 GMT

quote:
Originally posted by Tchuck:
Tinman (my coach) told me to set my alarm and consume 300 calories of carbs 3 hours before the race. He said I would perform better if I did this. So I did, No Complaints - felt great!

He also felt I could have possibly performed 1 min. faster if not for the wind????

wind could easily cut a minute or more from a half, just like big hills.

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Re: 1/2 MARATHON PREDICTION based on this long training run

guest — Mon, 22 May 2006 03:54:00 GMT

Tinman (my coach) told me to set my alarm and consume 300 calories of carbs 3 hours before the race. He said I would perform better if I did this. So I did, No Complaints - felt great!

He also felt I could have possibly performed 1 min. faster if not for the wind????

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Re: 1/2 MARATHON PREDICTION based on this long training run

guest — Mon, 22 May 2006 02:36:00 GMT

nice job and right in line with the predictions. congrats on the
great time. looks like you chickened out on the no carbs, huh?

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Re: 1/2 MARATHON PREDICTION based on this long training run

guest — Mon, 22 May 2006 02:31:00 GMT

Ran a 1:31.27 half marathon - a PR by 2 minutes over last year on the same miles per week of training (25 miles per week with one week at 30 miles)

Very happy. I have a full report at Race Reports

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Re: 1/2 MARATHON PREDICTION based on this long training run

guest — Sat, 20 May 2006 03:23:00 GMT

quote:
Originally posted by Tchuck:
Actually, I meant both. Not taking any in before 1/2 marathon or during the race????

More than likely though, I won't eat or drink carbs before but will sip a bit of Gatorade during the race. I don't think it matters with this distance if heat isn't a factor. Temp. at race time is expected to be mid to high 40s.

I ran a marathon a couple of months ago that only provided ultima,
which has practically no carbs or calories. I took one gel at mile
17 and the temperature was 82 degrees about half way in, wide open
with no shade. Before that race, I hadn't run in a temperature over
about 50 in months. I passed the half at 1:36 and slowed in the
last several miles to finish in 3:29, but I can pretty much guarantee
that the slowing was due to the heat, not the carbs per se. I had
also run a 20 miler the day before and another marathon the week
before in 3:19, so there's a good chance that my carbs were low to
start. There's little doubt that you have solid aerobic fitness, so I'd
be surprised if you would be seriously affected by not taking any
carbs in your half.

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Re: 1/2 MARATHON PREDICTION based on this long training run

guest — Fri, 19 May 2006 15:36:00 GMT

Actually, I meant both. Not taking any in before 1/2 marathon or during the race????

More than likely though, I won't eat or drink carbs before but will sip a bit of Gatorade during the race. I don't think it matters with this distance if heat isn't a factor. Temp. at race time is expected to be mid to high 40s.

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Re: 1/2 MARATHON PREDICTION based on this long training run

guest — Fri, 19 May 2006 02:50:00 GMT

Do you mean before or during? I don't take in any carbs before
races, unless they are 50 miles or more (in which case I will take
them at least 3 hours before). I took no carbs before the four
marathons and two ultras I ran this year (but I did take in
sports drink during the races and I took one gel in two of the
marathons). I do eat a random variety of stuff in ultras.

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Re: 1/2 MARATHON PREDICTION based on this long training run

guest — Thu, 18 May 2006 15:59:00 GMT

Anyone ever go through a half marathon without any carbs the day of the race?????

I am considering doing this on Sunday. I do not and cannot eat the day of a race. I tested it so many times and I am miserable with any solid food in my stomach - anything. It is not so much the stomach but how it makes my body feel. I feel like I am 30 lbs heavier when I eat anything solid before a run or race. My legs are like lead. Even a banana or power bar. I can handle a gel or Gatorade but feel even better without it.

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Re: 1/2 MARATHON PREDICTION based on this long training run

guest — Tue, 16 May 2006 01:29:00 GMT

More time to do some careful analysis then to revise the
predictions!

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