I have found the race calculators, I used McMillan to work well for me in all races. My marathon issues which I have had the last two times were because I went out to fast (you cannot bank time in a marathon). I would guess you can run 8:00 and that will make your time. In a marathon it is two races the 1st 20 and the last 10K. Run your 8:00 pace, early in the race you should good HR down if not then ease up a little. Good luck, be sure to take fuel as often as you can, for me the last 10 miles or so it gets very hard to take any!