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17 Replies Last post: Nov 21, 2005 6:01 PM by hopper3011 1 2 Previous Next

leon2

347 posts since
Dec 14, 2007

Nov 14, 2005 9:55 PM

2:05:38

It is, and forever will be, the AR, in my humble opinion.

Guest

1. Dec 22, 2007 1:25 PM

in response to: leon2

Re: 2:05:38

quote:<HR>Originally posted by leon2:
It is, and forever will be, the AR, in my humble opinion.<HR>

That's hard to say. I will say that it will be at least 100 years before a native born American will ever come close to it. Many Kenyan's, Ethiopians, Morocaan's etc are in search for a better life over here in this country, they now have options to choose to become American citizens, there is just so much opportunity for them over here in America. But what is considered to be the official AR will probably be broken within the next 5-10 years, if not sooner.

http://This message has been edited by Alex from coolrunning (edited Nov-14-2005).

milkbaby004

464 posts since
Jul 28, 2003

2. Nov 14, 2005 10:23 PM

in response to: leon2

Re: 2:05:38

With all due respect to Leon:

n0 w4Y d00d!!111111!1!11!!1

Time destroys everything, even AR's.

For a while, it might've seemed that a woman breaking 2:21 was never going to happen, but that's a barrier that has been totally shattered. That, plus factoring in what Alex said about immigrants, another KK-type is going to break it eventually. Granted, there are only 2 guys who ever ran faster so far, but I have faith somebody will do it eventually.

aurang

1,362 posts since
Jun 26, 2003

3. Nov 14, 2005 10:39 PM

in response to: leon2

Re: 2:05:38

quote:<HR>Originally posted by Alex from coolrunning:

That's hard to say. I will say that it will be at least 100 years before a native born American will ever come close to it. <HR>

Do you mean a white American, or do East Africans stop having kids once they move to America?

Even so, it's ridiculous to suggest that no white American will run 2:05 for another century. A hundred years ago, no one had even run under 2:40 to give you an idea of what can happen in a century. Once Americans are as fast as they were in decades past, maybe you can talk about what they can and can't do in the next century.

Guest

4. Nov 14, 2005 10:52 PM

in response to: leon2

Re: 2:05:38

quote:<HR>Originally posted by aurang:
[b] QUOTEOriginally posted by Alex from coolrunning:

Even so, it's ridiculous to suggest that no white American will run 2:05 for another century. A hundred years ago, no one had even run under 2:40 to give you an idea of what can happen in a century. <HR>

http://users.erols.com/jimsue/running/pot_pourri/the_decline_of_american_marathoners.htm[/URL" target="_blank">

Let's start by looking at the elite men.

As we all know, American men haven't been competitive on the international scene for several years. An argument can be and has been made that the presence of the Africans in international marathoning today, that didn't exist in the 70-80's, has pushed the Americans into the background of the international marathon scene. We all know that Africans dominate the top positions in most major marathons today. Therefore, it's easy to say that their emergence on the road racing scene in the last 10-15 years is the reason that Americans are no longer winning top marathons. However, that isn't the complete picture.

Other non-African countries continue to compete effectively against the Africans. According to RW's Records and Stats section, 23 (almost half) of the 50 fastest marathoners in the history of the sport are non-African, including 18 in the last five years. (6 Spaniards; 3 Japanese, 2 Portuguese; 2 Italian; 2 French; 2 Korean; and 1 Brazilian.) NONE of the top 50 are American!! OK, so the 16th fastest marathon of all time was run by Kalid Kannouchi, who is officially listed as USA. But that's a technicality. He is really a Moroccan who became a U.S. citizen shortly before his 2:07:01 AR performance at the 2000 Chicago. He isn't a "home grown" American marathoner.

The 50th fastest international marathoner ran 2:07:57. Except for Kannouchi's American record, no American has ever officially run faster than 2:08:47, which is almost a minute slower than the 50th world best....and that was over 7 years ago by Bob Kempainen at the 1994 Boston. Alberto Salazar ran faster at the 1981 NYC Marathon in 2:08:13, but it was disallowed because the course was determined to be 148 meters (27 seconds) short. Even with the 27 second correction, which would make it the fastest ever run by a "home grown" American, it still wouldn't make the top 50 world's best!!!

The picture gets even worse. While runners from other non-African countries continue to progress and compete with the Africans, American runners haven't just stood still....they have actually regressed. Of the 50 fastest American marathoners of all time, 34 of them ran their best times in 1985 or earlier! Further, after Kannouchi and Kempainen's races, the next 7 fastest American marathons....and 13 of the top 20....were run in 1985 or earlier. Only 8 (16%) of the 50 fastest American marathoners have run their best times since 1990 and only 1 of those occurred in the new millennium. Compare that to only 9 of the world's 50 best (18%) run before 1990 and 15 (30%) in the new millennium. Only three American marathoners have run sub-2:10 since 1990, whereas the entire field of top 50 international marathoners have run sub-2:08 and 44 of them since 1990.

Elite American marathoners were at the forefront of marathoning until the mid-80s, but have since slipped to no better than second class on today's international scene. The decline of American elite men appears to have started after 1985 and accelerated throughout the 90s. It has gotten so bad that the qualifying standard for the American Olympic Trials was lowered from 2:20 to 2:22 in order to keep a dwindling field from virtually disappearing.

Guest

5. Nov 14, 2005 10:55 PM

in response to: leon2

Re: 2:05:38

Based on these statistics, I'm not sure I can see anyone going under 2:06 in the next 100 years or so, out of the "home grown Americans".

milkbaby004

464 posts since
Jul 28, 2003

6. Nov 14, 2005 11:22 PM

in response to: leon2

Re: 2:05:38

quote:<HR>Originally posted by Alex from coolrunning:
Based on these statistics, I'm not sure I can see anyone going under 2:06 in the next 100 years or so, out of the "home grown Americans". <HR>

They are not American, but haven't non-Africans Lopes and Jones run 2:07? I understand there's a big difference between 2:07 and sub-2:06, but 100 years is a looong time.

Maybe we are in a dry spell. What happened to the women's marathon progression? It was over 15 years between Kristiansen running 2:21:xx to the first sub-2:20 by Takahashi.

sparkage

76 posts since
Oct 30, 2004

7. Nov 14, 2005 11:27 PM

in response to: leon2

Re: 2:05:38

quote:<HR>Originally posted by milkbaby:
[b]With all due respect to Leon:

n0 w4Y d00d!!111111!1!11!!1

Time destroys everything, even AR's.

For a while, it might've seemed that a woman breaking 2:21 was never going to happen, but that's a barrier that has been totally shattered. That, plus factoring in what Alex said about immigrants, another KK-type is going to break it eventually. Granted, there are only 2 guys who ever ran faster so far, but I have faith somebody will do it eventually.[/B]<HR>

There does come a point, however, when we as humans are prevented by our physical makeup from moving any faster. As such, we will achieve optimal time performances over various distances that we simply cannot better. Or at least one would assume so. Of course there are many other variables, especially over longer distances, that will mean records will continue to be broken, but in my opinion they will be broken much less frequently than has been the case over the last couple of decades. Anyway, this piece in the BBC cites a study suggesting that the moment of diminishing returns aint far off (drugs aside):

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/education/4417322.stm[/URL" target="_blank">

aurang

1,362 posts since
Jun 26, 2003

8. Nov 14, 2005 11:33 PM

in response to: leon2

Re: 2:05:38

If Salazar could run 2:08 over twenty years ago, why can't anyone do it today? If the world has managed to move forward, what makes Americans so special that they won't run 2:05 until the rest of the world is under 2 hours?

mopak

58 posts since
Jan 28, 2005

9. Nov 15, 2005 3:51 AM

in response to: leon2

Re: 2:05:38

With current trends in the next 20-30 years only about 10% of Americans won't be obese (us Aussies aren't far behind!!)
This is probably a major factor in the drop off in standards, a large number of kids have grown up without any physical activity.
As kids we ran, walked, swam, rode bikes, played football, cricket, tennis etc. We were continuously active so running was 2d nature to us.

milkbaby004

464 posts since
Jul 28, 2003

10. Nov 15, 2005 6:35 PM

in response to: leon2

Re: 2:05:38

While not American, Steve Jones is not African either. I looked up the info about his 1985 Chicago race and his halfway split was something like 61:45. That is faster than the low 63:xx that Tergat ran in Berlin for the current record. In fact, it could be argued that if Jones had gone out just a tad bit more conservatively, he might've run a WR that would be in the neighborhood of Tergat's WR but 20 years ago.

Jones is a Welshman from the British isles and Paula Radcliffe is an Englishwoman, right? What do these individual British folks have that Americans' don't?

MidDistance

27 posts since
Jun 9, 2005

11. Nov 15, 2005 10:31 PM

in response to: leon2

Re: 2:05:38

Im going to break it, Im American, and Im a girl.

rip van racer

70 posts since
Dec 5, 2004

12. Nov 15, 2005 11:18 PM

in response to: leon2

Re: 2:05:38

When Americans have a few hundred runners running 140+ a week, we will get back to the level we were in the 80's.

fredurie

1,979 posts since
Aug 21, 2002

13. Nov 16, 2005 10:06 AM

in response to: leon2

Re: 2:05:38

quote:<HR>Originally posted by milkbaby:
While not American, Steve Jones is not African either. I looked up the info about his 1985 Chicago race and his halfway split was something like 61:45. That is faster than the low 63:xx that Tergat ran in Berlin for the current record. In fact, it could be argued that if Jones had gone out just a tad bit more conservatively, he might've run a WR that would be in the neighborhood of Tergat's WR but 20 years ago.

Jones is a Welshman from the British isles and Paula Radcliffe is an Englishwoman, right? What do these individual British folks have that Americans' don't?<HR>

Balls.

dmichaelp

90 posts since
Dec 14, 2007

14. Nov 16, 2005 3:23 PM

in response to: leon2

Re: 2:05:38

"Some of the world's greatest feats were accomplished by people not smart enough to know they were impossible."
- Doug Larson

"Roger Bannister studied the four-minute mile the way Jonas Salk studied polio?with a view to eradicating."
Jim Murray, LA Times

"No one can say, 'You must not run faster than this, or jump higher than that.' The human spirit is indomitable."
Sir Roger Bannister

-Set your goals high because what a person accomplishes is in proportion to what they attempt.
Mitchell Naufell

-Some people follow their dreams, others hunt them down and beat them mercilessly into submission.
Neil Kendall

-Apres moi le deluge ("After me the flood")
Roger Bannister, after running history's first sub 4-minute mile

-Bid me run and I will strive with things impossible.
Shakespeare

-Never, never, never, never give up.
Winston Churchill

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Nov 14, 2005 9:55 PM

2:05:38

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