this is similar to Rochey's recent post, but I've been wanting to air out this subject too. As marathon #3 approaches (less than two weeks out) I ran my last 20-miler this past Sunday with a plan of making an extra effort to slow down, but finished around 8:40 pace. Since I have finished first two marathons in 3:56 and 3:58, I usually call MP 9:00. However, my usual training pace is probably around 8:45. I get confused with the guidelines about running long runs 1-2 mpm slower than 10K pace, or something similar to that. Just wouldn't work; way too slow. So am I just selling myself short with low expectations as to pace capabilities? Here's some more background:

~ male, 51, 5-10", 160 lbs., running about 5yrs
~ 10K PR is 48:30, on what I'd call a favorable course.
~ 15K PR is 1:15:30 on a harder course.
~ 35 mpw year-round
~ 40-45 mpw during marathon training, with a couple weeks into the 50's
~ some speed work, but could be more committed
~ ultimate goal would be to BQ, but suspect that may not be realistic until I hit the 55 AG.

Until the last long run, this year has been the most motivationally challenging marathon build-up. Not sure why; its the same race. I've done as many miles as in the past, but maybe not quite as many in long runs. This time I got in three 20-22 runs, with 4-5 in the 16-18 range.

So bottom line, the real question in my post is about pacing, long runs, and marathons. If I train comfortably at 8:45, should tht be my MP? Even though realistically I know by the end of the race I'll be doing well to be under 9:00? Am I really doing something that wrong? My pacing results don't seem that far off when I plug in the data to McMillan's calculator.