I just did a quick Google using a few keywords and I found what I wrote first try!
Here's how I get to a marathon race pace:
5 months out from your marathon, run a race or two half-marathon or less. Run them the best you can.
--take your best race,, go to the McMillan Calculator and pop in the time for the distance. A page will pop up. (I popped in 1:12:00 for a 10-mile race PR in July 2006)
--the top two boxes will show all the possible race times you can achieve at different distances with total fitness, good weather, and a sane course.
For 1:12:00 it gave (I'm excluding all the sub 5k distances 100m-3mi and a few between half and full marathon):
5000m...4M...8000m..5M....10K......15K......13.1M....Marathon
20:41..27:03...34:06..34:17..42:58..1:06:35..1:35:37..3:21:40
6:40.....6:46....6:51...6:51....6:54....7:09........7:18.....7:42
--I keep the 3:21:40 in mind as I begin base training. After 8-16 weeks (depending on the time I have) of runs below MAF and building volume, about 8-10 weeks from the marathon, I'll go out and do a 3-4 mile lactate threshold run. Having the first mile average about 85% MHR, then maintaining pace to get to about 90% by the 3rd or 4th mile.
The goal is to have that LT run fall between the 15k and half marathon time listed above (7:09 and 7:18). If I am way over (i.e 7:25 plus), and the temperature is low enough, that indicates I am not yet fit enough to shoot for a 3:21:40. There is still time.
--Keeping 85-90% of miles below MAF. I then add LT runs, MRP tempo runs, or the last 3-4 miles of a long run at marathon heart rate. I might even do fartlek on week, or some intervals (rare). Just something at higher HR's once a week.
--During that final 8-10 weeks, I like to do at least two MRP pace tempo runs between 7-14 miles at marathon heart rate (averaging about 85% MHR). Whatever the pace is, it is. Don't force it to be dream marathon pace. If the temperature is good (55-60º) and the pace is on "dream pace" or a bit faster, then this indicates dream pace might be a real possibility.
If it is slower for each run, then adjustments to the dream pace might have to be made.
--I do more LT runs in that 85-90% zone. Keeping tabs on the pace and seeing if they fall between the 15k and HM time in the calculator..
--If the pace falls between the goal 15k--half marathon pace, AND the MRP paces become a bit faster than the dream pace, then I go for the dream pace. I am fit enough.
--I then make a pace plan and try to follow it.
The important part of this system is comparing the LT paces to the calculator, as well as the pace of the MRP runs. If I find I'm smoking the the dream pace and the McMillan 15k time, it's time to
get a faster dream pace. This can be done without having to run a race first. Though usually a race time is handy. This works pretty well for me.
--Jimmy
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