Just a little more detail from the race, before the new projection.
There's actually not much to say. Except for miles 14-17, I ran within a few seconds of 6:40s the whole way. Of the splits I can remember, I was at 20:00 at mile 3, 33:17 at mile 5, 1:06:35 at mile 10, and I believe 1:33:20 (6:40s exactly) at mile 14. Then, things got rough, and I did something like 6:52, 7:11, and 6:57 through mile 17. I was a bit concerned at this point, but the last three miles have some downhills, which is somewhat important, and are mostly out of the wind, which is far more important . I ran 20:05 for the last three to finish at a 6:43 pace.
I got a nice little medal for the effort. My club, Somerville Road Runners, also picked up 3rd overall, first in the mens 45-49 (to my second), one-two in the womens 25-29 division, and second woman in the 40-44 division.
OK, let's make a projection. I was less than a minute faster than in 2006, the last time I ran Boston and the Vineyard. However, past results were off, as the course has been remeasured and found to be about 220 yards short in the past. Taking this into account, I'm about 1.04% faster than 2006, which would give me a 3:04:09.
But wait. I had an off day in Boston two years ago. Looking at my HM time from that year, comparing it to my HM time from 2003, the year of my last sub-3 marathon, and using that marathon/HM ratio, I'd say I was capable of 3:03:23 in 2006, which would put me at 3:02:14 this year.
Hold on, there's one more thing. I'm running about 8% more miles this year than I was 2 years ago, which should close some the the gap between the longer and shorter distances. Just for laughs, let's reduce my HM/marathon multiplier by the percentage increase in mileage, apply the new figure to my HM projection, and see what happens, which appears to come out to 2:59:10.
Well, there's a lot of conditionality in there, not to mention subjectivity, but that's my story and I'm sticking with it. For now.
