Marathon Pacing Help

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kcwoodhead

355 posts since
Oct 18, 2007

Dec 24, 2007 2:23 PM

Marathon Pacing Help - please!!

I need help coming up with some sort of "plan" for my upcoming marathon (Houston 1/13/08).

It will be marathon #7 for me, with #'s 1-6 ranging from 5:55 to 5:12. The 5:12 was in Houston in 07. I ran Chicago in 07 as well, but I'm just not thinking the 5:54 there is really of any use for helping me out here! I know I'm faster, but really have no idea how much faster.

Here is a little more data:

Feb '07 10k PR: 59:47

Nov '07 10k PR: 54:37

Dec '06 50k PR (40 degrees): 7:48

Dec '07 50k PR (80 degrees): 6:33

(edited to add the 50k is a trail race, not a road race...)

Oct '07 1/2 Ironman Run: 2:24

Most recent track workout was 2000, 1600, 1200, 800, 400, 800, 1200, 1600, 2000 all at T-Pace (actually a little faster that T-pace, which is ~8:55 min/mile for me) with ~90 seconds rest. Workout was challenging, but I did not have a problem maintaining pace throughout.

Average mpw has probably been ~25, two highest weeks will be around 40 mpw (5 and 3 weeks out from the marathon).

Long run pace is usually 11:00-12:00.

I do not really have any other races to gauge off of. I did a 25k race a month ago that did not go well (2:51), but I'm chalking that up to it being over 80 with high humidity that day and the fact it was race #3 in 3 weeks (half ironman, 25k trail race, then this 25k road race on consecutive weekends).

I run and race long distances using a 9/1 formula (run 9 minutes/walk 1 minute) and plan to do this in the marathon. I know most of what happens on race day will be directly related to how I feel, but I figure I should at least have some idea of a game plan before I toe the line. Right now I'm tentatively thinking about aiming for a 2:12-2:15 first half and going from there, but that is still a total shot in the dark. I could show up and run 1 mile and say "no way that's happening" or "ok, that wasn't that bad."

Any advice/previous experiences/help would be greatly appreciated!

Jacques Le Strappe

95 posts since
Dec 14, 2007

1. Dec 20, 2007 5:56 PM

in response to: kcwoodhead

Re: Marathon Pacing Help - please!!

The more years you have run....the faster you will run. Your 10k PR suggests you should be capable of around 4:10, but at 40 mpw I doubt very much you will run that fast. Target 4:30, but don't be disappointed if you run a slower second half and miss it by a few minutes.

FWIW....My 10k PR is 54:11, and I am shooting for a 4:10 to 4:15 in Feb. But I'm averaging over 50 mpw and have hit 70 at peak.

kcwoodhead

355 posts since
Oct 18, 2007

2. Dec 20, 2007 6:54 PM

in response to: Jacques Le Strappe

Re: Marathon Pacing Help - please!!

Thanks for the reply!

I've used every calculator out there, but am aware most don't take into account training volume. I was definitely overtrained for the 10k, but could be considered undertrained for the marathon. I am a triathlete, hence the lower mpw than your average marathoner.

This is my 5th marathon season, so hopefully that will be in my favor as well. It is safe to say I will do better in the past, I just don't know how much better!

Jacques Le Strappe

95 posts since
Dec 14, 2007

3. Dec 21, 2007 6:37 AM

in response to: kcwoodhead

Re: Marathon Pacing Help - please!!

You're welcome!

I've found that the longer the race distance the greater the uncertainty on finish time. Predictors try to nail the finish time but you have to remember that they've assumed no risk factors.

So what are the risk factors in marathons? First of all, weather conditions, course conditions, and lastly, personal conditions. One significant personal factor is the amount of time spent on the course....the longer you're out there the greater the risk of missing the prediction. Four plus hr marathoners are much more succeptible to energy depletion, muscle fatigue and cramping than three hr racers. In short, understand your risks and attempt to deal with them before the race. If you know what your best pace is, (race predictors) but have not come close to it in past races, then I would say you aren't running enough miles to achieve that goal and you should therefore race very conservatively. All of my best times have been achieved by starting slower than average pace and finishing strong.

Jim2003

17 posts since
Dec 23, 1999

4. Dec 22, 2007 8:34 PM

in response to: kcwoodhead

Re: Marathon Pacing Help - please!!

You might be interested in Predicting A Marathon Time.

Jim2

Jacques Le Strappe

95 posts since
Dec 14, 2007

5. Dec 23, 2007 6:03 AM

in response to: Jim2003

Re: Marathon Pacing Help - please!!

Interesting article Jim! Based on my 10k PR and my current weekly miles my factor should be around 5, and that predicts a marathon finishing time of about 4:30. I'll be running one in mid February and am targetting 4:10, so we will see. One factor that I believe is important is the amount of time spent at that weekly mileage. If only a year or two, then the result should be more uncertain. But if 10 years or more, then the result should be more predictable.

willamona

384 posts since
Dec 14, 2007

6. Dec 23, 2007 7:05 AM

in response to: Jacques Le Strappe

Re: Marathon Pacing Help - please!!

It is not the number of years you have been running that make those charts more accurate, it is your aerobic fitness level. If you are areobiclly fit, the charts workout fine. The OP here is training way too fast. They need to slow down and teach the body to recover. It looks like their training pace is just a few seconds per mile slower than their marathon pace. That is generally not good. Marathon pacing is going to be a tough call since they are having this issue.

Jacques Le Strappe

95 posts since
Dec 14, 2007

7. Dec 24, 2007 5:33 AM

in response to: willamona

Re: Marathon Pacing Help - please!!

I don't disagree, but fitness doesn't develop to a peak overnight, or even in a year or two. It continues to improve over time. I am running at the same mileage rate that I was running in 1999, but I am faster now, in spite of being almost 10 years older.

kcwoodhead

355 posts since
Oct 18, 2007

8. Dec 24, 2007 11:10 AM

in response to: willamona

Re: Marathon Pacing Help - please!!

I'm curious as to why you say I'm training way too fast, and what part of it I need to slow down. Running much slower than a 12:00 min/mile is a bit difficult, even for slow people like me. I'm assuming my marathon pace is going to be somewhere between 10:00-11:00, but I am not sure, hence the original post. The way I see it, my long runs are 30-90 secs/mile slower than goal pace, but there is just a lot of wiggle room in my race pace, training pace, and which end of the 30-90 second window you should be in.

As far as weekday runs (track, tempo, etc), those are all based off of V-dot paces calculated here: http://www.attackpoint.org/trainingpaces.jsp using my most recent 10k time. That suggests an easy/long pace of 11:01/mile. When using McMillian, I'm given a training range of 10:18-11:18 for long runs based on my 10k time. I'm aware my long races might not be at the same "intensity" as the 10k, so I think it still makes sense that 11:00-12:00 is a good range for long runs for myself. If I'm doing it all wrong, I'm interested to know what I should be doing instead.

kcwoodhead

355 posts since
Oct 18, 2007

9. Dec 24, 2007 11:15 AM

in response to: kcwoodhead

Re: Marathon Pacing Help - please!!

Also, here is another fun calculator many of you might not have seen. It is from a triathlon calculator website I play with from time to time. I like this one because it does take into account training volume.

Using a 5k time of 27:16 (actually the second 5k of my last 10k), 40 mpw avg for my 2 highest weeks, 45 mpw biking during those 2 weeks, and 4 previous years experience racing at this distance, I get a 4:26 marathon time for an extremely flat course.

I'm not sure I have the confidence to "go for" a 4:26, but it certainly helps bring my eyes from 4:59 to 4:30-4:40 or so.

willamona

384 posts since
Dec 14, 2007

10. Dec 24, 2007 12:02 PM

in response to: kcwoodhead

Re: Marathon Pacing Help - please!!

I see race paces of 10-12+ mm. If those are truely PR's then an 11 mm training run is way to fast. The only way to get faster at this level is to slow down and improve your aerobic fitness level. When my race paces were this slow, I was training at 13-15 mm. At an 11 mm long run training pace, I ran a 3:48 marathon. Slow down while training. And don't tell me it's not possible. McMillian and Daniels have very aggressive training paces. But then, they train elites. Sometimes, the further you are from elite, the larger the gap between training pace and race pace. Sonetimes, it's not the case. But 11 mm training runs while having recent 12+ mm race paces (and PRs at that) is not a good sign. This is looking at the longer distances, I do marathons. You just flat out are not areobically fit. You times do not matchup at all. You need to slow down in training and run more mpw. That will bring your marathon time down and make running these longer races much more comfortable.

kcwoodhead

355 posts since
Oct 18, 2007

11. Dec 24, 2007 2:22 PM

in response to: willamona

Re: Marathon Pacing Help - please!!

The 50k was a trail race - that may be causing some confusion there.

The 2:24 half was part of a half ironman, so it is safe to assume the equivalent race pace on that day for a half marathon would have been well under 11:00, had I not been racing 4 hours already.

Point being I don't have any good road races to predict a marathon pace off of right now. Also point is I'm clearly running faster this year than when I ran the 5:12 marathon last year, but I just don't know how much faster at this point. I took 1:15 off the 50k. I doubt I'll take anywhere near 1:15 off the marathon, but I think I will take more than a few minutes off marathon time.

I appreciate your input, but I also beg to differ on the flat out not being aerobically fit part. This marathon is part of training for ironman #2 and I don't know many ironmen that would all themselves flat out not aerobically fit.

willamona

384 posts since
Dec 14, 2007

12. Dec 24, 2007 3:41 PM

in response to: kcwoodhead

Re: Marathon Pacing Help - please!!

Um, I train the same way Mark Allen does or rather did. He came to this type of training after doing an Ironman or two and coming to the realization that he was not aerobically fit. Read some of the MAF thread. Your prime intrest will be in the links specifically too Mark Allen. If you do not know who Mark Allen is, google him. It will be worth the effort.

Good luck with your goals.

kcwoodhead

355 posts since
Oct 18, 2007

13. Dec 25, 2007 4:06 PM

in response to: willamona

Re: Marathon Pacing Help - please!!

I know who Mark Allen is and I have read a lot about the MAF training method. I think there are just so many different training methods and options, and just beacuse one works well for one person, doesn't necessarily mean it will work well for another (and also people are constantly trying new things....so training one way may work for a while then training another way may work for a while). Point being I don't doubt MAF training is working great for you and that it could possibly work great for me, but I'm just not going to try it right now. If and when I do try it out, you can be the first to say I told you so!

I've had IT band problems for 5 years now and am finally getting a handle on it. One thing both my MD and PT said (the ones who are finally fixing me) is that the #1 reason I have trouble in the first place is because of my slow long run pace. My gait at that pace just doesn't work very well for my body, apparently. That is also one of the reasons I do the 9/1s. The tiny bit faster I'm able to run during the 9 minutes makes a big difference in my gait and keeps my knee happier much longer than if I slowed down a tiny bit and ran through without walk breaks.

Dec 24, 2007 2:23 PM

Marathon Pacing Help - please!!

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