Here's my swag.

I once heard that every 1K ft of elevation change was like adding an extra mile. The total elevation change on CCM (according to a GPS profile I found) is ~ 1K ft.

So subtract your average per-mile time from your total time and that's what you might have run on a flat course.

Yeah right...

It's just a guess. Who knows. If you want to be a little more scientific about it here's an idea:

Look at where you placed in CCM. Let's say you placed at 50% for your age group. Next find another race of similar size run under similar weather, but flat, and see what the 50% finishing time was for your age group in that race. Or you could figure out the average finishing time for your age group at CCM, figure out the average finishing time for your age group in the comparison race, and multiple your time by the ratio of the two averages.

As an example, I ran CCM this year and finished in 3:56:20 which was 140/275 for my age group (M1439). Looking at the Steamtown results, my age group in that race would be M3034 and there were 105 runners in that group. 105 x 140/275 = 54th place = 3:38:20.

Now what's interesting about this is that my CCM goal pace was actually an 8:23 mile which would have placed me very close to that Steamtown time. I came up with that goal pace using my Va Beach half-marathon time and a couple different predictors (the tables from the Glover book and the McMillan calculator). Of course, I crashed and burned at mile 20 of CCM.

This isn't very scientific and there really isn't anyway to know for sure, but it's fun to play.

j.

http://This message has been edited by jaysoffian (edited Nov-04-2005).

ljwoodw - I added a slightly more scientific approach after you replied.

quote:<HR>jaysoffian
Cool Runner posted Nov-04-2005 12:32 AM            
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Here's my swag.

I once heard that every 1K ft of elevation change was like adding an extra mile. The total elevation change on CCM (according to a GPS profile I found) is ~ 1K ft.

So subtract your average per-mile time from your total time and that's what you might have run on a flat course.

Yeah right...

It's just a guess. Who knows. If you want to be a little more scientific about it here's an idea:

Look at where you placed in CCM. Let's say you placed at 50% for your age group. Next find another race of similar size run under similar weather, but flat, and see what the 50% finishing time was for your age group in that race. Or you could figure out the average finishing time for your age group at CCM, figure out the average finishing time for your age group in the comparison race, and multiple your time by the ratio of the two averages.

As an example, I ran CCM this year and finished in 3:56:20 which was 140/275 for my age group (M1439). Looking at the Steamtown results, my age group in that race would be M3034 and there were 105 runners in that group. 105 x 140/275 = 54th place = 3:38:20.

Now what's interesting about this is that my CCM goal pace was actually an 8:23 mile which would have placed me very close to that Steamtown time. I came up with that goal pace using my Va Beach half-marathon time and a couple different predictors (the tables from the Glover book and the McMillan calculator). Of course, I crashed and burned at mile 20 of CCM.

This isn't very scientific and there really isn't anyway to know for sure, but it's fun to play.

j. <HR>

i'm glad you added the "yeah right..." portions to your post! i'ver never heard that intitial formula where did it come from?

using a comparison to another marathon is even worse science...one has no idea who was running in those races, statistical comparisons of age group won't tell you anything really. the CCM was the USATF-New England championship marathon this year and one would assume it would probably get a bit faster crowd than some other similar sized marathons might. maybe not, but it would be bad to make assumptions.

Cape Cod is a difficult course, but not as difficult as some. The hills are in abundance, but none are too long or too steep. My guess is that they still slow any runner down (even if you are a good hill runner as ljwwodw states he is), there is a reason why the world bests are set on flat, flat courses!