Michigan,
I think you're borderline. You have a chance, but you might need a little more time. Don't get too caught up in this upcoming race -- relax -- don't overthink it. All of your plans will go out the window when it starts really hurting at the half way point, anyways

When I was wound up about running the sub-20, my first race out, I bombed - got a 20:51. I was so keyed up, I ran the first mile in 5:58 and had to jog after the second mile.
I got it on my second race - barely, 19:59. I ran a much more relaxed, controlled race. I was actually slightly over pace for the first two miles, and probably much of the third, but like your plan, I salvaged the effort with a strong kick in the last 800 meters or so.
It's really key to relax. Run right up to the point where it's starting to hurt and then back off. Bounce off of the pain threshold for the first two miles - your breathing should be a hard 2-2 - if you get into that 2-1 rythm (exhaling as hard and fast as you can so that you can gulp in another lungful) before the two mile marker, I think your overall time will suffer. Don't let it get to that point, even if you're behind schedule.
Don't surge with other runners. Run your pace. You're not looking to win, here - you're looking to run even splits and dole out your effort intelligently to hit a time goal. If you run evenly, you won't get passed much after the first half mile, but you'll be passing lots of other folks. In either case, it's important to not press to keep up with the guys just in front of you near the beginning of the race. Let 'em go. Either they're running over there head and you'll catch them later or they're better.
Don't hammer the hills, especially at the beginning. Towards the end, let it all hang out, but in the beginning, don't press on the hills - let your pace drop as you maintain an even effort.
You can make up a ton of time in that last stretch if you're speed is decent and you're not completely discouraged by running over your head for the first two miles. If you're baked at mile 2, all this talk about speeding up, running strong, surging etc. will be out there window. Run at a pace you can handle for the first two, or you'll be seriously comtemplating feigning a pulled hammy and walking, in the third. In that state, it's all you can do to keep running at any pace - speeding up will be unthinkable!
Do you have other races lined up after this upcoming race, or are all your eggs in that basket?
PS - I've run 4 sub-20s in a row since I last posted to this thread, but I still lurk.
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brook trout
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