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2441 Views 28 Replies Latest reply: Jun 3, 2006 12:39 PM by Guest 1 2 Previous Next
dmichaelp Rookie 89 posts since
Dec 14, 2007
Currently Being Moderated

May 17, 2006 4:35 PM

Forget Calculators: Actual Results?

A very unscientific poll: what is your pace progression like as you run longer races?

Example:

5K: ~
10K: + 0:20
10m: + 0:15
1/2: + 0:06
m:     + 0:25

  • CliffD Rookie 40 posts since
    Nov 18, 2004
    Currently Being Moderated
    1. May 17, 2006 5:18 PM (in response to dmichaelp)
    Re: Forget Calculators: Actual Results?

    Here is an example of a runner that needs to improve endurance... (me)

    5K: 19:50
    10K: No recorded time
    Half-marathon: 1:36
    Marathon: 3:41

    Those calculators say I should be running a faster marathon, and I really want to believe it...I just have to do the work and put in the mileage.

  • formationflier Rookie 974 posts since
    Oct 13, 2007
    Currently Being Moderated
    2. May 17, 2006 6:32 PM (in response to dmichaelp)
    Re: Forget Calculators: Actual Results?

    1M:  5:36 (been about 2 years)
    2M: 12:46 (been about 2 years) (6:23/mile or 1M+ 0:47)
    5k: 20:39 (haven't done one in a long time) (6:39/mile or 1M+ 1:03)
    10k: 43:03 (haven't done one in a while either) (6:55/mile or 1M + 1:16)
    10M: 69:24 (6:56/mi or 1M + 1:20) (actually measured 10.3 miles)
    HM: 1:33:30 (first half of marathon) (7:09/mi or 1M + 1:33)
    marathon: 3:12:43 (7:22/mi or 1M + 1:46)
    50.2 miles: 8:28:50 (10:09/mi or 1M + 4:33!)

    recent times are 10 miler, marathon, and 50 miler. Most others are
    old.

    ----



    MyRunningLog[/URL" target="_blank">


    MyStuff[/URL" target="_blank">


    Low Heart Rate Training FAQ[/URL" target="_blank">

  • Southern Man Rookie 757 posts since
    Apr 19, 2006
    Currently Being Moderated
    3. May 17, 2006 11:43 PM (in response to dmichaelp)
    Re: Forget Calculators: Actual Results?

    This is a little bit misleading without some other data points, such as how long one has been running and average weekly mileage...but a fun game none the less, so I'll play.

    I've been running 18 months, and have averaged 60 mpw this year...

    5k 6:43 pace (this is a little stale, so I could do better now, I think)
    10k 6:49 pace (=:06)
    10 mile 7:10 pace (no taper and horrible pacing) (:21)<br />1/2 marathon  7:14 pace (:04)

    Not bad from the standpoint of the calculators, but I tend to slow a little more than predicted as distance increases. I think my times will become more "in-line" as I get more miles on me.

    Southern Man

    ----



    My advice is worth what you paid for it

  • Viich Amateur 323 posts since
    May 27, 2004
    Currently Being Moderated
    4. May 18, 2006 7:05 AM (in response to dmichaelp)
    Re: Forget Calculators: Actual Results?

    1500m - 4:29.24 (3:00/km) - this year
    3000m - 9:33.xx (3:11/km) -this year
    5K -18:20 (3:40/km) - this year
    5mi -30:40 (3:50/km) - last fall
    10K -38:12 (3:50/km) - last fall
    ½ 1:32:40 (4:23/km) - (old)

    According to the calculators, I peak at 3K... that was on the track though, and at my best trained point in my running career so far.

  • MaineRunner2001 Rookie 265 posts since
    Mar 15, 2002
    Currently Being Moderated
    5. Dec 20, 2007 9:47 PM (in response to dmichaelp)
    Re: Forget Calculators: Actual Results?

    5K 20:04 (6:28/mile ~)
    4M 27:45 (6:56/mile +0:28)
    5M 35:11 (7:02/mile +0:06)
    10K 44:30 (7:10/mile +0:08)
    10M 1:15:09 (7:31/mile +0:21)
    HM 1:44:15 (7:58/mile +0:27)
    M 3:41:49 (8:26/mile +0:29)

    I have been running a little over 5 years, 25 to 30 miles per week (peaked at 50 miles per week while training for the marathon.)

    My 4-mile to 10-mile races seem to fall in line with calculators. The reason the 5K is so much "better" than the other races is that it is on the easiest (flattest) course. The half marathon is old; I think I can take almost five minutes off from it. As for the marathon, I do not think I will be able to improve it. Due to family, I cannot train the number of miles necessary to get the marathon time down.

    Profile[/URL" target="_blank">


    [http://This message has been edited by MaineRunner2001 (edited May-18-2006).|http://This message has been edited by MaineRunner2001 (edited May-18-2006).]

  • slimfastshady Rookie 66 posts since
    Dec 14, 2007
    Currently Being Moderated
    6. May 18, 2006 8:35 AM (in response to dmichaelp)
    Re: Forget Calculators: Actual Results?

    5k - 18.10 (fast course two months prior to marathon)
    5m - 31.50
    10k - 43.20 (one and only 10k and 15 months old)
    10m - 1.08.10
    HM - 1.29.30
    M - 3.20.10

    Looking at others numbers my 5k is way out of sync with everything else - must of been a fluke !
    d

  • RTCRUNR Rookie 370 posts since
    May 25, 2002
    Currently Being Moderated
    7. May 18, 2006 9:00 AM (in response to dmichaelp)
    Re: Forget Calculators: Actual Results?

    I run anywhere from 80-100 mpw.

    5k - 4:56
    10k - 5:06 (:10)<br />10M - 5:14 (:08)
    1/2 mar - 5:24 (+:10)

    ***I've never run a half when in top shape. It should probably be no more than +:05 or so per mile over my 10M time and I hope to remedy that later this year.

  • spinach Rookie 112 posts since
    Dec 14, 2007
    Currently Being Moderated
    8. May 18, 2006 9:07 AM (in response to dmichaelp)
    Re: Forget Calculators: Actual Results?

    1 mile           5:29
    5k 18:52 (6:04)
    5 mile 31:14 (6:15)
    half 1:27:20 (6:40)
    25k 1:45:20 (6:47)
    marathon 3:07:15 (7:09)


    The marathon time was the oldest (a year and a half ago) and I hope to better it somewhat this weekend.

  • WI MTP Rookie 461 posts since
    Jan 7, 2006
    Currently Being Moderated
    9. May 18, 2006 9:41 AM (in response to dmichaelp)
    Re: Forget Calculators: Actual Results?

    I do not count splits from longer races - I also added the number of times that I have raced the distances and what the calculator would say based upon my marathon time.  With the exception of the marathon(2006) I set all the PRs in 2005.  My 1st race was in 2004.

    5K 17:51 (5:45) - 2 times Calc 17:05 Variance = :46
    5 Mile 30:48 (6:10) - 4 times Calc 28:25 Var = 2:23
    10k 36:38 (5:54) - 6 times Calc 35:52 Var = :46
    15k 1:02:52 (6:45) - 2 times Calc 55:21 Var = 7:31
    10M 1:01:57 (6:12) - 1 time Calc 59:40 Var = 2:17
    1/2 M 1:24:14 (6:26) - 4 times Calc 1:19:39 Var = 4:35
    25K 1:44:19 (6:44) - 2 times Calc 1:35:36 Var = 8:43
    Marathon 2:47:14 (6:23) - 6 times - Basis for Calculator

    Obviously - I need to race more

    I would hope that all PRs would fall this year except the 15k and 25k - I do not plan on racing those distances.  Up to know the only race I have ever tapered for is the marathon, but I think it would be fun to go into some shorter races rested.

  • kspowell Amateur 263 posts since
    Jul 8, 2004
    Currently Being Moderated
    10. May 18, 2006 10:55 PM (in response to dmichaelp)
    Re: Forget Calculators: Actual Results?

    5K:    20:19
    10K: 42:39
    HM: 1:33:37
    Full: 3:27:40

    --


    <br /><a href="http://interwovendesign.com/kick/userdisplay.php3?username=kspowell" target="_blank">New half marathon PR[/URL" target="_blank"><br />Positive thoughtsnegative splits!

  • Canuck Kid Rookie 45 posts since
    Jul 9, 2005
    Currently Being Moderated
    11. May 18, 2006 11:59 PM (in response to dmichaelp)
    Re: Forget Calculators: Actual Results?

    Even though all calculators claim to take into account the need for greater endurance over the long hall, I don't think they really do a good enough job.  It's easier to have ideal conditions for 5k than for 42.  I think Galloway (sorry!) puts it well. Speaking about the prediction chart (based on 5Ks) in one of his books, he writes:

    "Add 10 to 20 minutes to the time because this prediction assumes that (1) the course is perfectly flat, (2) the temperature is below 51 degrees F, (3) there is less than 25 percent humidity, (4) there is no wind, and (5) there are no turns on the course. (In more than 116 marathons, I've never experienced those conditions.)"

    He also suggests predicting based on the average of a few of your 5Ks, not your very best. That seems to only make sense, especially over something as long as a marathon where ups and downs balance out, right?

    Anyways, FWIW:
    5k - 21:04 (chip)
    8k - 38:32
    10K - 48:25
    Marathon - 4:01:35 (chip)

  • ltrun Rookie 114 posts since
    Jun 24, 2005
    Currently Being Moderated
    12. May 19, 2006 1:33 AM (in response to dmichaelp)
    Re: Forget Calculators: Actual Results?

    Interesting poll, and where the discussion has led.

    In my first running career (military) I ran the 2 mile race 100+ times over a 12 year span. Best 11:26 and normally 12:00-12:30 or so. Save a couple random races, this was the only race that mattered. Did it at least once per month.

    After a 3 year layoff, second running career started Summer 2003 and all PRs are since then. Also, I did a couple 2M time trials in marthon training this spring. But just one 5K (it hurts too much.)

    1M - unknown
    2M- 11:56 (5:58) Mar 06
    5K- 18:56 (6:06) Apr 06
    10K- 40:54 (6:36) Jun 03; soft, untested since.
    13.1- 1:26:19 (6:35) Sep 05
    26.2- 3:09:27 (7:13) May 05

  • bhearn Amateur 430 posts since
    Dec 14, 2007
    Currently Being Moderated
    13. May 19, 2006 2:47 AM (in response to dmichaelp)
    Re: Forget Calculators: Actual Results?

    quote:


    Originally posted by dmichaelp:

    A very unscientific poll: what is your pace progression like as you run longer races?

    Example:

    5K: ~
    10K: + 0:20
    10m: + 0:15
    1/2: + 0:06
    m: + 0:25


     



    5K: 6:10 pace
    10K: + 0:16
    no 10m
    1/2: + 0:21
    m: + 0:34

    Bob[/URL" target="_blank">

  • michael wade Rookie 18 posts since
    Feb 18, 2003
    Currently Being Moderated
    14. May 19, 2006 10:07 AM (in response to dmichaelp)
    Re: Forget Calculators: Actual Results?

    1 mile:     5:15
    5K: 17:44 (5:43) +:28
    5 miles: 29:35 (5:54) +:11
    10K: 36:45 (5:55) +:01
    10 miles: 1:01:22 (6:08) +:13
    Half Marathon: 1:24:00 (6:25) +:17
    Marathon: 3:07:15(7:09) +:44

    Note: Huge jump in pace from 1/2 to full marathon.
    But, I'm working on that! !http://www.coolrunning.com/forums/smile.gif|src=http://www.coolrunning.com/forums/smile.gif|border=0!

    ----



    rocknrunner [/URL" target="_blank">

    "Some follow their dreams, others hunt them down and beat them into submission"

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