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I did the majority of my long runs (16,17,20,22 miles) at 8:25ish avg, give or take a few secs. At first I was shooting for an 8:23 pace for the marathon in hopes to BQ. But having done my long training runs at MP without much effort, what should I shoot for at the actual race? If I'd have slowed down any more during my training runs it would've actually been harder for me to complete the mileage. Is shooting for an 8:12 avg (3:35 total time) lofty or should I be able to do faster?
You need to provide more info: First you should not run your LR's at MP or even close to MP. On some advance plans they will have you doing some miles on your LR's at MP.
What plan are you using?
What is your MPW not the highest total but ave for your cycle?
What is your age and sex
How many marathons have you ran?
What are some of your most resent race times, best would be a 1/2 time then a 10K or 10 mile time would also help.
I wasn't intentionally running as fast as I was. I just did a half marathon a few weeks ago and my pace was 7:55. I did my first marathon last year with a pace of 8:56. While training for that one I did all my long runs at about 9:10-9:15 pace. I never let my shortest long distance run dip below 10 miles for the year in between, just worked on getting them faster. My 10k pace was 7:20 in April. My 20miler on Sunday was at 8:25 avg and I was able to run and sing Christmas carols with my husband for several miles and talk the whole run. I run four days a week and usually do a day or two of cross training (swimming, biking, core, eliptical). Don't know the name of my 16 week plan. I used the same one last year and it worked well to get me in under four hours, which is what I was shooting for. I'm a 36 year old female. I have no idea what MPW stands for. This past weeks plan was for a 5,8,5,20. My first 5 was at a 7:35 pace, my 8 at an 8:30 pace and my second 5 at an 8:30 pace. I had a negative split for my long run on Sunday.
This is at best a guess, you can put your half time into a running calculator like Macmillan they tend to be a little aggressive on their times if you are not running 70+ Miles Per Week (MPW). I think 3:40-3:45 based on your 1/2 time of around 1:42 and your 10K time around 46. But if you were able to sign while running miles 15-20 you may be in 3:35 shape? Wise less aggressive plan pace for 8:30, aggressive plan pace for 8:10-8:12 but that could lead to a long last 10K. One thing to remember is that if you have to run 3:35 you have to pace a little faster because you are going to run more than 26.2 for me it's all ways about 26.60ish so that extra 800 will add 4-6 mins to your time! Good luck
One calculator says to double your half marathon time and add 10 minutes to get your marathon time. In your case that works out to about a 3:38 marathon and an 8:20 pace.
It's tough, because if you bite off more than you can chew, you won't know it 'til late in the race and things can get ugly in a hurry. If it were me, I'd probably start out conservatively and see how I feel at 20 miles.
If this is just your second marathon, treat it as a learning experience. If you feel good at 20, drop the pace and finish strong, then you know a BQ is possible. If not, finish at a comfortable pace, adjust your training and go from there.
And good luck!
Enjoy life, this ain't a rehearsal...