sub 2-hour marathon?

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5052 Views 9 Replies Latest reply: Oct 2, 2008 2:58 PM by Active Toby

marc v

25 posts since
May 17, 2007

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Aug 26, 2008 11:14 AM

sub 2-hour marathon?

Two of my friends made a bet back in college - one friend said in the next 50 years, someone will run a sub 2-hour marathon and the other friend disagreed. This was 12 years ago so the questions is, in the next 38 years, will someone break 2-hours? I think the current world record is 2:04 and change. The world record in 1958 was 2:15 so the last 50 years has seen the WR reduced by 11 minutes.

What do you think? Who is going to win the bet?

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Active Toby
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1. Aug 27, 2008 10:57 AM (in response to marc v)
Re: sub 2-hour marathon?

I'd like to see the progression of the world record across the past 50 years until now. Maybe that trend would help us forecast. Does anyone know where to look for that info?

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marc v
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May 17, 2007

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2. Aug 27, 2008 11:03 AM (in response to Active Toby)
Re: sub 2-hour marathon?

gotta love wikipedia:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marathon_world_best_progression

here's a cool chart:

http://www.marathonguide.com/history/records/

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Active Toby
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3. Aug 27, 2008 11:23 AM (in response to marc v)
Re: sub 2-hour marathon?

So it's dropped 9 minutes in the last 50 years? I'd say there's a great chance it could drop below 2 hours in the next 38 years. I'm interested in what others think though. I mean, that's a pretty rugged pace. 4:34.8 I've never run 1 mile that fast...

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Active Toby
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4. Sep 29, 2008 7:34 AM (in response to marc v)
Re: sub 2-hour marathon?

Hey Marc, news alert: Ethiopia's Haile Gebrselassie broke his own world record on Sunday at the Berlin Marathon with a time of 2hrs 03min 59sec.

Read the whole story here: http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5h52DNhbEsT43ezMWDmvEnv2JZNOw

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marc v
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5. Sep 29, 2008 7:40 AM (in response to Active Toby)
Re: sub 2-hour marathon?

Wow...he broke the previous record (his own) by almost a half minute. I think we may get to sub 2-hours sooner rather than later.

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Active Toby
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6. Sep 29, 2008 7:44 AM (in response to marc v)
Re: sub 2-hour marathon?

Yeah that record lasted a year before he chopped ~30 seconds off. Very impressive and def evidence supporting a sub 2-hour 26.2 in our lifetime. Get out there and give it a shot!

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Jay Silvio
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7. Sep 29, 2008 8:11 AM (in response to Active Toby)
Re: sub 2-hour marathon?

Seems like skipping the Olympic Marathon wasn't such a bad idea...

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Active Toby
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8. Sep 29, 2008 8:18 AM (in response to Jay Silvio)
Re: sub 2-hour marathon?

Ah yes, great point Jay: he wouldn't have had this performance if he raced in Beijing.

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Active Toby
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9. Oct 2, 2008 2:58 PM (in response to Jay Silvio)
Re: sub 2-hour marathon?

Check this out: http://www.coolrunning.com/engine/3/3_1/gebrselassie-to-run-in-du.shtml

Gebrselassie is already looking to top his performance as soon as mid-January in the Dubai Marathon. If he wins, as he did last year, he will win $250,000 but if he breaks the world marathon record, he'll win a 1 million dollar bonus! With that kind of incentive, I wouldn't be surprised if he goes a few seconds faster...

What do you think--is that enough time for an elite marathoner to recover and throw down again?

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